The late-September incremental market was geographically mixed Wednesday. Eastern points tended to range from flat to down about a dime, while except for similarly softer Permian/Waha quotes, the West was flat to nearly a dime higher.

Weather remained mild to chilly in nearly all areas except Florida and parts of the West, although a gradual warming trend continued in the Midwest. A number of cities in the Southeast set date-specific records for low temperatures Wednesday, according to the Weather Channel. However, this early period of cooler than normal weather as autumn gets under way isn’t strong enough yet to spur a gas market rally, sources said. Barring significant change one way or the other, they look for moderate softening to continue as the market pattern at least into early October.

With storage so close to full with more than a month to go in the injection season, “AGA reports just don’t draw nearly as much attention as they used to,” observed a Gulf Coast trader. The screen barely blinked in response to Wednesday afternoon’s report of 91 Bcf in injections last week, sending already weaker October futures a bit lower for an expiration-day decline of nearly a dime.

Although delivered prices in the Northeast were off 3-4 cents, Transco’s production-area pooling points saw most of the East’s small gains. A producer thought that was largely due to a modicum of heating demand in the pipeline’s market area all along the East Coast from Georgia through New York City.

An already substantial price gap between Tennessee’s 500 and 800 Lines grew larger as 800 quotes tumbled by more than a dime while the 500 Line was down only about a nickel. It’s the cumulative effect of 800 Line maintenance constraints that have made prices there relatively weak in comparison with both the 500 Line and Tennessee’s Zone 0 pool in Texas, a Gulf Coast marketer said.

Outside of the Florida peninsula, it appears that the desert Southwest and Rockies have cornered the market on warm weather lately. One western trader said that was the only possible rationale he could see for moderate San Juan/Rockies/Pacific Northwest and Malin/PG&E citygate gains because he was unaware of any maintenance-related supply constraints.

A few CIG and Questar deals continued to be reported below a dollar Wednesday, but the two pipes were averaging in triple-digit territory. CIG stayed at 98 cents only briefly as trading began and then climbed steadily to the mid $1.10s, a marketer said.

Depending on what areas they trade, sources had differing perceptions of October price movement Wednesday. A Rockies trader saw little to no change from Monday and Tuesday. A Gulf Coast marketer said his numbers were getting a bit softer along with Nymex. But a trader in the Southwest basins said prices there moved a little higher but not by much in very quiet activity. For instance, Waha began the morning at $1.62 but was only up to $1.665 that afternoon, he said. However, he is looking for a Waha index around $1.71 because of higher prices before Wednesday.

Discounted index deals remain popular, as they were in the previous two bidweeks. A marketer reported being offered Sonat gas at index minus 6.5 cents. He attributed the heavy discounting to “a couple of major producers being sloppy.” They’re just eager to place their gas wherever possible without engaging in a hard sell, and do so mainly because so many utilities have quit buying new gas, the marketer said. The October aftermarket is likely to be pretty weak both because of the deteriorating economy and what is shaping up as major OFO potential by the pipelines throughout the month, he said.

However, another trader reported seeing Gulf Coast index discounts “get tighter” (that is, less negative) Wednesday. The reduction in discounts was only about a quarter-penny to two cents, he said, but that was fairly significant.

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