With winter-like weather occupying or being hinted at in most areas, there was no surprise when all points were united in strong advances Wednesday. The previous day’s screen uptick of about a dime provided a bit of extra support for cash prices.

The increases ranged from a little less than 20 cents to about 95 cents. Other than many of the largest gains being recorded at frigid Northeast citygates, they were scattered fairly evenly among other geographic regions.

Little let-up in cold and occasionally snowy conditions is likely in the near future, so firm pricing can be expected to continue. But to reinforce that prospect, the 85.1-cent spike in January futures practically guarantees further big cash market gains Thursday, a couple of sources said.

The South will be the driest and relatively warmest part of the nation, along with the Southwest, Thursday. However, freezing morning lows in the South must be endured before afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s are reached. Despite some snow in western sections, the Northeast’s highs won’t be all that much lower in the 40s and 50s, according to The Weather Channel.

Most of the harshest weather is due in the Midwest, Plains and northern half of the West, which have been bearing the brunt of the early touches of winter so far. The heaviest snow will concentrate again in the Pacific Northwest and Rockies, but will lessen toward the east into the Midwest.

In great contrast to the November aftermarket, December spot prices are starting off stronger than first-of-month indexes and look like they will maintain premiums to index for at least another week or two.

Chicago citygates started very strongly Wednesday, weakened a bit and then picked up again, a marketer said. There was enough heating demand that some people were “playing around” and willing to wait it out for the second upsurge, he said. Also, he added, there’s usually a bit more volatility as a month starts; schedulers ask their traders to get done quickly until things settle down a few days into the month. There is definitely some weather demand for early December, but conditions should start warming up again around the middle of the month, he said.

Bidweek is finishing up earlier and earlier this year, it seems, the marketer continued. There has been almost nothing left to be done in the last two days of bidweek in recent months, with almost everything remaining getting wrapped up on the afternoon of the screen settlement, he said.

The sales rep for several independent Gulf Coast producers said some downstream pipes in North Louisiana continue to be overnominated, “so we have to wait each day to see where cuts are being made.” Until all the storm damage is repaired, she doesn’t see that situation letting up much. However, “some pipes have surprised me,” with constraints all through November but starting to ease as December begins. She cited Texas Eastern as an example. Also, she noticed that Tennessee constraints also were being reduced now that the Sabine Plant is processing again (see Daily GPI, Nov. 29). Despite the occasional transport cut, she reported “no problem at all finding market for Thursday” with all of the cold weather in the North.

An Upper Midwest marketer said Wednesday temps were around freezing, and more snow was in the forecast. The prognosis for the next few days? “More of the same.” She said her company is pretty well set for the month with MichCon baseload, but probably will have to dip into daily market for Consumers Energy supplies.

After net injections continued into the first couple of weeks of the traditional storage withdrawal season, the pace of withdrawal is expected to be speeding up in Thursday morning’s EIA report. Analyst Ron Denhardt of Strategic Energy & Economic Research said he projects a pull of 52 Bcf for the week ending Nov. 25, which he said would compare with a 7 Bcf draw a year earlier. The Reuters survey called for a withdrawal of 43 Bcf to be reported.

Restoration of shut-in Gulf of Mexico production is slowing to a snail’s pace again. Only 28.20 MMcf/d was regained since Tuesday, said Minerals Management Service, which counted 2,965.30 MMcf/d as remaining offline Wednesday.

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