Mother Nature delivered a gut punch to the natural gas market, pulling back on projections for a polar vortex to descend into the Lower 48 by the end of the month. The frigid forecast was seen as the missing link in an otherwise solidly supported market.

With only brief cold snaps on the radar, natural gas forward prices responded swiftly with sharp decreases in the remaining two months of winter. The losses come in spite of strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand and lower production. Smaller losses were seen further out the curve, NGI’s Forward Look showed.

EBW Analytics Group said the “rare loss” of a startling 35 gas-heating degree days and 70 Bcf within the near-term time frame triggered the collapse of the February Nymex futures contract, which plunged 19 cents on...