After bouncing off the $7.05 level numerous times during morning trading, November natural gas futures gave up on traveling below $7 for the session. Instead, with help from another strong day turned in by crude and heating oil futures, the prompt month went on to settle at $7.163, just 9.2 cents lower than Thursday’s close.

Not through with breaking records, November crude and November heating oil to set all-time records yet again in part because of continued unrest in Nigeria. Crude reached $53.40/bbl before settling at $53.31/bbl, up 64 cents on the day. Heating oil notched a high of $1.4595/gallon before settling at $1.4540/gallon, up 2.31 cents on the day.

“The quiet session for November natural gas is an inside day so far, with today’s full range fitting safely inside of the $6.95-7.44 span from Thursday’s trade,” said Tim Evans of IFR Energy Services. “The $7.44 high matched the spot cap for prices from January, but new highs won’t necessarily constitute a clean breakout as the peak from last December was $7.55.”

Evans said he anticipates more selling into the $8 area if the market does try to blast directly higher here. Looking to the downside, he said a break below the $6.915-6.95 lows of the past two sessions would confirm at least an interim top for prices, putting pressure on uptrend support at $6.59 and then prior lows of $6.50, $5.90 and $5.23 if prices continue to fall.

Commenting on some storm activity located in the western Gulf of Mexico, Evans said he believes the bad weather rumblings are just enough to cause some traders to hold back from selling at this point. (The disturbance was named Tropical Storm Matthew late Friday afternoon.) “The truth is, the peak of the hurricane season is past and each successive passing threat has more potential to be the last of the year,” he said. “Overall, the hurricanes are just a distraction though, only of real relevance to the extent they drain the year-on-five-year storage surplus. So far, they haven’t.”

While the natural gas storage situation has shown nothing but strength, as evidenced by the healthy 81 Bcf injection report on Thursday despite shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico, other factors including the influence from liquids, as well as weather, have been enough to keep natural gas futures inflated.

“The market seems to be pricing in the full winter now, but with so much storage on hand, we see serious downside risk if it doesn’t turn rather cold, rather early,” Evans said.

Fittingly, NOAA’s latest six-to-10 day forecast released on Thursday is calling for below normal temperatures for a majority of the country. From Oct. 13-17, NOAA sees below normal temperatures from New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana to the East Coast, minus Florida and the upper Northeast, which are expected to experience normal to above normal temps. Arizona, Utah and Idaho are expected to exhibit normal temperatures, while California, Nevada, Oregon and Washington will be warmer than normal, according to the agency.

As for the winter (see related story), NOAA scientists expect above-average temperatures in Alaska, much of the West and the northern and central Great Plains. Below average temperatures are expected across the Gulf Coast states, the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic. The government agency said there are equal chances of warmer, cooler or near-normal temperatures this winter in the Northeast, Midwest and parts of the Southwest.

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