For the second time this spring Colorado State University (CSU) forecasters have cut their 2009 Atlantic hurricane forecast, saying they now foresee slightly below-average tropical storm activity and slightly below-average probability of a major hurricane hitting the United States.

The CSU team now estimates that the Atlantic hurricane season, which began Monday and runs through Nov. 30, will produce 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them intense (Category Three or greater).

In a preliminary forecast in December, the CSU team had estimated there would be 14 named storms this year (see Daily GPI, Dec. 11, 2008). By April the forecasters had cut their Atlantic hurricane forecast to 12 named storms (see Daily GPI, April 8).

Currently neutral El Nino/southern oscillation conditions that could transition to weak El Nino conditions, the persistence of anomalously cool sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and a stronger-than-normal Azores High during April-May all contributed to the new forecast, according to CSU.

A total of 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes, five of them intense, formed during the 2008 season. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an average Atlantic hurricane season has 11 named storms, which includes two major hurricanes.

CSU set these probabilities that a major hurricane would make landfall on U.S. soil:

Tropical cyclone activity, which had previously been predicted to be 105% of the average season this year, was downgraded by the CSU team to approximately 90% of the long-term average. By comparison, 2008 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 160% of the average season.

Other forecasters calling for a relatively mild hurricane season include WSI Corp. (see Daily GPI, May 27), NOAA (see Daily GPI, May 22) and AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi (see Daily GPI, May 15).

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