Saying they continue to see signs of above-average activity during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Colorado State University (CSU) forecasters have increased the number of storms that they predict will form this year and said the probability of major hurricane landfall for the United States is about 130% of the long-period average.

“We continue to foresee above-average activity for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season” due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and “a more confident view” that the current El Nino in the Pacific Ocean will weaken, the forecasters said in an extended-range forecast issued Wednesday. “We believe that these two features will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification,” they said.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has said the El Nino appeared to have peaked in December and predicted that it would end by June.

The CSU forecasters said they expect 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes, four of them intense (Category Three or greater), to form during the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1. In its initial 2010 hurricane forecast, CSU had called for 11-16 named storms in the Atlantic Basin this year, including six to eight hurricanes, three to five of them major hurricanes (see Daily GPI, Dec. 11, 2009).

Nine named storms formed during 2009, including three hurricanes, two of them intense. From 1950-2009 the Atlantic hurricane season produced an average of 10 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.

According to the CSU forecast there is a 58% probability of at least one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean this year, and a 44% probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, TX.

Last month AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi said he expects the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season to be much more active than the 2009 season, with seven named storms, including five hurricanes, making landfall on the U.S. mainland (see Daily GPI, March 11). Bastardi’s forecast calls for 16-18 tropical storms this year, with 15 of them in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has also predicted an active Atlantic hurricane season based on a faltering El Nino (see Daily GPI, Feb. 8). Andover, MA-based WSI Corp. has said it expects the 2010 hurricane season to be more active than last year’s and predicted that 13 named storms, including seven hurricanes, with three of them intense, will form this year (see Daily GPI, Jan. 27).

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