Natural gas futures extended their recent losses in early trading Tuesday as considerable weakness in the weather-driven demand outlook continued to weigh on prices. After plummeting 42.1 cents in the previous session, the November Nymex contract was down 9.9 cents to $4.890/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET.

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The front month probed back above the $5 mark in after hours trading, going as high as $5.054, but was unable to hold at those levels. 

November appears headed for a test of support around $4.86, potentially lower, according to analysts at EBW Analytics Group. This could occur “as soon as later today,” the analysts said.

Weather-driven demand has been “crumbling,” with the firm estimating a 12 Bcf drop in cumulative demand for the second and third upcoming storage weeks (between Friday and Nov. 4) based on the latest model runs.

“European natural gas failed to maintain gains in the aftermath of a bullish pipeline capacity auction,” the EBW analysts said. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed gas nominations “slipped below the seven-day average to 10.75 Bcf/d.”

Bearish technical momentum and “soft near-term fundamentals” could see prices slide further Tuesday, but hints of a shift to colder temperatures in November could “quickly reverse” the recent price weakness, the EBW analysts added.

NatGasWeather characterized the latest weather data as “emphatically bearish” during the Oct. 27-Nov. 2 time frame, when above-normal temperatures are forecast to dominate across the eastern two thirds of the Lower 48.

“The latest weather data also wasn’t any better for Asia as warmer than normal conditions are favored through late October into early November,” NatGasWeather said. “There will be decent cool shots into northern Europe, although with weather patterns still a bit too comfortable over western and southern Europe. Essentially, all three major demand regions (U.S., Asia, Europe) will need to wait on widespread cold until November.”

Looking ahead to Thursday’s storage report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Energy Aspects issued a preliminary estimate for an 80 Bcf injection for the week ended Oct. 15.

“A plunge in domestic production and returning feed gas for LNG exports will keep storage activity flat week/week, despite a 2.6 Bcf/d reduction in power” demand, according to the firm.

NGI’s machine learning model predicted a 95 Bcf injection for the upcoming report, a figure that would far surpass historical norms. The five-year average injection is 69 Bcf, while a 49 Bcf build was recorded for the year-earlier period, according to EIA.

November Nymex crude oil futures were up 54 cents to $82.98/bbl at around 8:45 a.m. ET.