With the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last week releasing a forecast calling for above-average temperatures across most of the country this winter, one might expect that natural gas and electricity demand will decrease, taking prices along for the ride.

However, NOAA also sees a La Nina event taking place this season, which in previous years has been found to disrupt natural weather patterns.

In their winter outlook, NOAA forecasters called for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across parts of the Southwest and Southeast. NOAA’s forecast included a heating degree day forecast for December through February that is 2.8% warmer than the 30-year normal, but still 1.3% cooler than last winter. The current weak-to-moderate La Nina event is likely to persist through the winter, according to Michael Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

“The big concern this winter may be the persistence of drought across large parts of the already parched South,” Halpert said. “And while December through February is likely to be another milder-than-average winter for much of the country, people should still expect some bouts of winter weather.”

A La Nina event is when ocean surface temperatures cool off the western coast of South America. During the last recorded La Nina event in late 2000, natural gas futures prices jumped by $5.720. After the La Nina event came into play in late 2000, front-month natural gas futures recorded a low trade of $4.380 during the first week of November and a high trade of $10.100 during the last week of December.

It should be noted, however, that gas in storage only reached a peak of 2,748 Bcf during the 2000 injection season. Current supply stands at 3,336 Bcf.

How the La Nina event plays out this season and whether the market will see a repeat of 2000 remains to be seen.

NOAA’s seasonal forecasters predicted above-average temperatures for most of the continental United States, northern Alaska and Hawaii this winter. Only the northern Plains and Northwest regions and central and southern Alaska have equal chances for above-, near- or below-average temperatures.

Drier-than-average conditions were forecast for most of the country’s south and the south-central Plains, while above-average precipitation was forecast for the Great Lakes, Tennessee Valley and Northwest regions and Hawaii. The northern Plains and central and southern Alaska have equal chances of above-, near- or below-average precipitation, NOAA said.

NOAA scientists based their forecast on long-term climate trends and a variety of forecast tools from statistical techniques to extremely complex dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupled models and composites. The outlook will be updated on Oct. 18 and again on Nov. 15.

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