Somewhat improbably, since the high heat levels of last week have receded from most areas outside the desert Southwest, prices rose at most points Monday. The cash market did have support from the previous Friday’s 16.5-cent advance by August futures and from the return of industrial load from weekend hiatus.

Declines of up to about 35 cents at several scattered points, mostly in the Rockies and Midwest, kept the latest string of mixed price changes intact. The overall market saw some instances of flatness amid gains ranging from a couple of cents to a little more than 30 cents. A slight majority of movement — either up or down — continued to be in single digits.

Even with forecasts of Tuesday temperatures in triple digits or approaching 100 all the way from the desert Southwest to eastern Montana, the Rockies again exhibited greater price weakness than the rest of the market. Highs in Cheyenne, WY and Denver were expected to hit the mid 90s Tuesday, yet the localized cooling load proved insufficient to prop up prices.

Maintenance also had an impact on the Rockies, as Northwest proclaimed a Declared Deficiency Period in association with zero capacity through the Washougal (WA) Compressor Station because of hydrotesting scheduled through Friday.

Prices are expected to fall at most, if not all, points Tuesday because of Monday’s steep slide of nearly 29 cents by August futures.

A Gulf Coast producer counted herself among those who think that the Nymex drop will keep prices from continuing to strengthen Tuesday. She said she was “a little bit surprised” that the gas contract retreated so much while crude oil futures got a little stronger. Sometimes the two markets seem connected, and other times they don’t, she noted.

As far as she could tell, only the Midwest has added some extra heat since the end of last week, and it wasn’t all that much. But her company was seeing some forecasts Monday for hotter weather in the Northeast and Midwest during the last week of July, the producer said. And although mid-July temperatures remain subpar compared to normal levels in much of the South, a power generation plant in North Louisiana was buying lots of gas for Tuesday, she said.

Noting that Southern Natural Gas recently reported storage being 80% full around the half-way point of the traditional injection season, she said her company had sold large quantities of gas into Southern over the past couple of months, “and I have no doubt that a lot of that gas” is still underground in the pipeline’s two storage facilities.

A Calgary-based producer wasn’t sure why the Chicago citygate was up about 15 cents since the city’s low 80s forecast for Tuesday’s high didsn’t seem all that hot, but he guessed it was enough to have a fair amount of air conditioning load in play. He thought of one other thing that might have been a factor: intra-Alberta receipts have fallen recently due to warm weather in the province, so there is less gas available for export .

A western trader said West Coast weather has gotten quite a bit milder, with even inland California cooling down from the high 90s. Much of the gas being marketed in the West currently is going into storage because there is little current-burn demand, she said.

Citigroup analyst Tim Evans expects storage additions of 70 Bcf and 73 Bcf to be reported for the weeks ending July 13 and July 20, respectively.

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