The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins June 1, is likely to produce above-average numbers of tropical storms, according to a growing list of forecasters, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) and MDA EarthSat Weather.

“The U.S. was lucky last year,” NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said Thursday. “Despite an above-normal season, we did not have significant damage from these storms on U.S. land. The winds that steer where storms go kept them away from our coastlines. We cannot count on having the same luck this year.”

NOAA said the Atlantic basin is likely to produce 12-18 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes, three to six of them Category 3 or greater. And while NOAA does not make seasonal landfall predictions, it said it is unlikely that another year of above-normal activity will leave the United States unscathed.

“This year we are unlikely to see a repeat of last year, where there were a total of 19 named storms — that was the third most active hurricane season on record — including 12 hurricanes, the second highest in one season. Despite this tropical onslaught, most of the tropical storms and all of the hurricanes last year, fortunately, avoided U.S. coastlines,” Lubchenco said.

Climate factors that led NOAA to its 2011 Atlantic hurricane forecast included the relative warmth of Atlantic Ocean water, a weakening La Nina event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the continuation of an era of high activity that began in 1995.

“During this period the conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere collectively have produced a larger number of storms and more powerful hurricanes,” Lubchenco said.

The Atlantic basin produced an average of 12 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of them intense, between 1950 and 2010.

MDA EarthSat said it expects 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes, five of them intense, to form in the Atlantic this year. In its initial tropical forecast earlier this year, MDA EarthSat predicted 16 named storms and six hurricanes.

The revised outlook was generally in agreement with Andover, MA-based WSI Corp.’s latest forecast, which calls for 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes, four of them intense, and remains above the longer-term 1950-2010 average of 12 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of them intense (see NGI, May 2).

Despite being one of the busiest hurricane seasons in years, 2010 brought relatively little damage to the U.S. mainland and energy interests in the Gulf of Mexico. Short-term weather patterns, including the position of the jet stream and the tendency of last year’s tropical storms to form in the extreme eastern Atlantic, helped to keep many of 2010’s storms away from the United States, according to NOAA.

MDA EarthSat and WSI both believe there is a greater likelihood of hurricane landfall in the United States this year than there was in 2010.

“Last season saw plenty of events during the season, but as far as the energy industry was concerned it was a nonevent since there was a lack of any notable landfalls,” Hartman said. “This year, however, while the activity numbers are expected to be lower year on year, various years in the analog set used to construct the forecast suggest more activity will be seen towards the U.S. coastline.”

AccuWeather.com forecasters, who have also predicted a higher-than-normal number of tropical systems with more direct impacts on the U.S. than last year, have said any effects of hurricanes on the energy industry — including spiking prices for gasoline — aren’t likely to last long.

NOAA was accurate in its 2010 Atlantic hurricane forecast, which predicted 14-23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes, three to seven of them intense (see NGI, May 31, 2010). The season went on to produce a total of 19 named storms, with 12 of them becoming hurricanes, including five intense hurricanes. But despite being one of the busiest hurricane seasons in years, 2010 brought relatively little damage to the U.S. mainland and energy interests in the Gulf of Mexico.

Warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific also suggest that the summer “will be approximately 14.5% cooler than last summer,” said Travis Hartman, energy weather manager and meteorologist for MDA EarthSat.

“While the summer forecast for the nation as a whole now sits between the 10-year and 30-year normals, there will still likely be some events during the course of the season that will bring about significant cooling demands. The drought-stricken areas of the South seem most likely to see these heat events, but even areas along the eastern seaboard — including the PJM region — should expect some variability that could produce notable events.”

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