The market recorded quite a few small to moderate gains Friday, primarily in the West and Northeast, but most weekend prices ranged from flat to as much as about 20 cents lower. The general softness was attributed to fairly moderate weather in most of the East, typically lower demand over a weekend, and the residual effect of the previous day’s screen plunge.

There’s a strong chance of a weather-driven rebound Monday, though. Northeast temperatures were expected to be a few degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday, a utility buyer in the region said, “but we go back to colder than normal Monday. [Our company] has a lot of load returning that day.” However, he saw little in the way of Monday-only deals being done Friday, saying he expected any jumps in demand Monday to be covered mostly by storage withdrawals. A Gulf Coast marketer agreed, saying he was unaware of any Monday-only deals at all, even with one counterparty who “nearly always” trades a weekend package for Monday-only flow.

Affiliated pipelines Texas Eastern and Algonquin affirmed the buyer’s expectations of an increase in load Monday, saying that weather-related demand on their systems would begin rising late Sunday and continue Monday. Although neither pipe had any restrictions in place for the weekend, both anticipated that due-shipper imbalance makeup gas would be restricted on Monday.

Cold weather and snow throughout much of the West helped the region largely avoid the softening trend elsewhere, and an OFO on El Paso (see Transportation Notes) helped boost numbers on that pipe, particularly in the San Juan-Blanco pool, a marketer said. She observed that the Blanco average closed to within 2-3 cents of Keystone (Permian Basin) Friday after the two points had been slightly more than a dime apart the day before. El Paso’s San Juan-Bondad pool did not fare so well, being one of the few declining western points. Bondad likely was weaker because “flows out of Bondad have been incredibly bad lately,” the marketer said. She also reported seeing a lot of “same-day demand from western power generators over the last couple of days.”

A Calgary-based producer quoting intra-Alberta prices down about a dime to the mid C$6.20s said the decline occurred despite frigid nighttime temperatures that had reached minus 19 degrees Celsius the night before, although it was about minus 5 degrees Friday afternoon. Canadian traders will do nearly all of Monday’s business for flow through Friday because of the Dec. 26 Boxing Day holiday, then come back on Friday to trade for the weekend.

A Midcontinent trader said a number of his industrial customers would be closed for the holidays this week, estimating that would cut his load by about 15-20%. “I don’t see that as having much of an effect, however. Prices will likely stay strong as long as the weather forecast is chilly.”

An eastern utility buyer complained that he keeps reading “forecasts for cold, warm, cold, warm. It’s hard to get a handle on the market when they keep varying like that.” There was a lot of price volatility last week, he noted, but most of the week “cash gas has been a good buy for us.”

Lehman Brothers analyst Thomas Driscoll estimates that this week’s storage report will show a withdrawal of “roughly” 90 Bcf versus 80 Bcf a year ago and the five-year average of 118 bcf. His counterpart at Salomon Smith Barney, Kyle Cooper, said his initial estimation is for a draw that will exceed 100 Bcf. Based on a forecast by SSB’s chief meteorologists, Cooper added that “there is certainly the possibility of draws as large as 200 Bcf in the first couple of weeks in January.”

Sources continued to report that virtually all indexed deals for January will be discounted. A Northeast utility buyer said he was offered Texas Eastern South Texas gas at index minus 5 cents. And a western trader said the Waha market was getting a little weaker, being offered at index minus 8 cents Friday after having been quoted at index minus 6-7 cents early in the week. She also reported Waha fixed prices on either side of $4.80.

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