Spurred primarily by a fresh surge in futures, the cash market realized large increases again Monday, although most of them were smaller than those on Friday. Gains ranged from about a nickel at a couple of Rockies points to more than 40 cents at the Florida citygate; a majority were between a dime and a quarter.

“We’re just sitting here watching the screen go crazy,” said a somewhat awestruck Houston-based marketer. He and others credited an April futures spike that fell just shy of 23 cents with providing most of the positive influence on cash numbers. They also expected further advances today based on the momentum built up Monday in both futures and cash.

However, the outlook for new firmness was not as strong in the West, which posted many of Monday’s smaller upticks and also saw retreats in late quotes at several points. Spiking power prices had been the moving force behind western gains Friday, but power numbers fell Monday at three of the region’s main trading points. Only Palo Verde, where a nuclear unit is down, continued to see rising electricity prices. In addition, western weather is expected to be generally mild except for some chill in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Rockies. Some areas saw several inches of snow over the weekend, but they’re due to feel temperatures in the 50s after midweek, a Rockies trader said.

One source noted that wintry conditions would remain through today in the Upper Plains but would be fading in much of the Northeast. Overall, traders generally felt that northern heating demand was a negligible factor in yesterday’s price strength. However, colder temperatures will be returning toward Thursday from the Chicago area into the Northeast, a marketer said.

A noticeable amount of air conditioning load was developing in the Southeast as temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s today through much of the region. That likely helped buoy Gulf Coast numbers and propelled Florida citygates to the day’s largest gain.

Everybody is trying to figure out what the screen will do next, a Gulf Coast producer said. He said he’d heard some technical analysts saying they look for futures to go to $3.40-50 soon. Otherwise, “there’s a little bit of weather up North, but nothing that we haven’t already seen recently.”

A Midcontinent marketer quoting Chicago citygates in the mid-$3.20s said there wasn’t a lot of volume traders because “it’s still kind of warm there.” A rupture on Great Lakes Gas Transmission (see Transportation Notes) had essentially no impact on the market, he added, “but I did see a lot of interest in Vector supplies early on.”

A producer reported doing a Chicago deal for April at $3.27, about the same as where swing gas traded.

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