Canadian natural gas production and storage are both elevated heading toward shoulder season – much like in the United States – and bearish pressure on prices persists.

There are hints that exploration and production (E&P) companies may pull back, following the lead of their Lower 48 brethren and creating the potential for supply/demand balance this summer and stronger prices ahead. Unlike the United States, though, a pullback has yet to materialize.

Prices have a big hole from which to climb: Canadian prices traded at a steep discount to U.S. benchmark Henry Hub. NGI’s NOVA/AECO C forward basis price for April delivery hovered at nearly minus 60.0 cents in the past week. NGI’s March 2024 NOVA/AECO C Bidweek price averaged C$1.630/GJ, down from C$2.560 in March...