A new western natural gas forecast is expected to be conducted by the California Energy Commission (CEC) for the Western Governors Association, which will be holding a three-day North American Energy Summit later this week in Albuquerque, NM.

The CEC, California’s power plant siting and energy research unit, does an annual gas forecast for the state, taking into account broader western supply developments and issues, said David Maul, manager of natural gas special projects at the CEC. As an offshoot of the summit later this week, the Western Interstate Energy Board will meet Tuesday in part to approve the CEC conducting study, Maul said on Friday.

“It will include a natural gas supply/demand adequacy forecast,” he said. “I think they will announce it Tuesday. We’ll be doing an extension of our forecast into the entire West, both supply adequacy, looking at congested pipelines, making sure we have enough supplies and pipeline capacity to meet our needs for the next 10 years.”

A similar study on western electricity supply is being done as well, Maul said, and the gas statistical work will be coordinated with that ongoing forecasting work. “We want to make sure both of the studies are well integrated together,” Maul said.

On the liquefied natural gas (LNG) front in California, the CEC has “not yet decided” what action, if any, it might take in the ongoing jurisdictional battled between the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The CPUC is expected to ask FERC to reconsider its finding that the federal regulatory panel has exclusive jurisdiction over the siting of LNG import facilities. The filing deadline is April 23, according to Maul.

“FERC issued its declaratory order and gave folks 30 days to file,” he said. In the meantime, the CPUC is poised later in the month to institute an investigation of a proposed LNG receiving terminal in Long Beach Harbor. The terminal is proposed by Sound Energy Solutions (SES), a U.S. subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corp.

Maul said the CPUC action and the FERC case may “kick off a flurry of activity” this spring. “We may see a number of other states filing comments in the jurisdictional case because the federal action has implications for all states. It eventually could have an effect on other coastal states.

“It will be interesting to see if the FERC order applies just to SES and California, or if it applies more widely. It could be very easily interpreted to apply to all states.”

On another simmering issue, the safety concerns raised by an explosion at and LNG plant in Algeria that killed 27 people are being closely monitored by the CEC, Maul said. “There is new information that shows that it involved a boiler that mechanically exploded; now they are looking for the cause — whether it was a malfunction of maintenance, or the boiler. Was it a mechanical issue or too much fuel getting in there? We’re down to those nuances.”

Later in the year, the CEC will be “very actively involved” in the CPUC’s year-long, two-phase natural gas investigation, said Maul, although the state energy unit won’t be an “intervenor,” but more of an “extension of their staff.”

Maul will be participating on a panel discussion Wednesday, May 19 at GasMart 2004 in Denver on new pipeline capacity and markets for Rocky Mountain natural gas. See www.gasmart.com for information about the conference May 17-19 at the Marriott Denver City Center.

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