It lasted only a few hours, but the first power alert for the year from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) last Monday raised the pitch of discussion about the state’s summer power reserve adequacy. Most observers agreed the Stage One alert was not a harbinger of any undue problems.

A Boston-based consulting firm issued a pronouncement to that effect, and officials in California treated it as an isolated blip. The alert, which puts large users and utilities on guard but doesn’t prompt any load shedding, was issued in the early afternoon March 29 and rescinded before 8 p.m. the same day.

“Monday’s Stage One Electric Emergency in California was not an omen for this summer,” said an announcement from Energy Security Analysis, Inc. (ESAI), which analyzed the grid operator’s move. “Our analysis shows that California will have ample supply to meet electricity demand this summer. The emergency was a one-time occurrence that is [unlikely to recur] this summer.”

However, ESAI has supply concerns beyond this year, perhaps as early as the summer of 2006. “We do have concerns beyond the summer of 2004 related to the need for building more generation in the state, but things look good for this summer,” said Stephen Conant, ESAI’s senior market analyst.

In its monthly analysis of California’s electricity market, ESAI noted that the state through the California Public Utilities Commission is doing a good job of planning for at least an 18% reserve margin, but that “little progress” is being made in developing state policies that will assure the needed new generation will get built.

Last Monday’s situation, however, was not an indication of any immediate problems, rather it was an unexpected combination of unseasonably hot weather and unforeseen power plant outages, all concentrated in the southern half of the state that forced CAISO to declare the Stage One alert because reserves hovered a little below 7%.

This was the grid operator’s first alert of the year, and the situation never got close to a Stage 2, in which large power users who pay a cheaper interruptible rate are asked to curtail their loads. The alert Monday was just to put the customers and utilities on notice.

CAISO said that it declared the Stage One due to “higher-than-expected loads and loss of resources south of Path 15,” the north-south grid interconnect in the central part of the state. A spate of unusually warm weather began last Sunday and the extended outage of the 1,100 MW Unit 2 at San Onofre Nuclear Generating Plant (SONGS) contributed to concerns.

The grid operator forecast a peak load approaching 33,000 MW last Monday, and in the early afternoon ahead of the 4 and 7 p.m. peaks, the statewide load reached 32,500 MW. At the same time, about 10,700 MW were out of service, with 7,500 MW of that total concentrated in the south.

The San Onofre nuclear plant expected to have its Unit 2 back in operation by March 27, but service was delayed a week, according to Southern California Edison Co. spokesperson. Undergoing planned repairs since Feb. 9, the 1,123 MW Unit 2 encountered a problem during an initial start-up March 24. Additional repairs were required on a device used to measure reactor coolant temperatures.

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