California’s power supplies this winter should be adequate, according to the state’s electric transmission grid operator’s (CAISO’s) latest analysis posted on its web Friday. However, the report added the caveat that future periods may be more problematic because of continuing power plant cancellations and delays.

Assuming no major generation or transmission outages, the ISO will have enough power and meet minimum reserve and peak-load requirements from now through April 2003, the report said. In addition, CAISO deemed the transmission system adequate to meet peak loads.

“While the CAISO 2002-2003 Winter Assessment indicates that adequate resources will be available to meet the winter peak, there is concern that the existing surplus capacity (i.e. operating margins) may evaporate over the next few years, ” the report said, as a result of the grid operator running three possible scenarios:”base,” 37,000 MW peaks (typical weather and economic activity); “low,” 33,000-MW peaks; and “high,” 38,600-MW. The base case requires an operating reserve of 2,170 MW, CAISO’s report said.

The report noted that many generators have canceled or delayed California power plant projects in an effort to curb capital spending and shore up balance sheets to improve their dismal financial performance in recent months. It also noted that 2,771 MW of new generation was added as of Sept. 30, 2002, with 276 MW retired, and in addition, several older, existing plants still don’t have mandatory emissions controls installed and “may retire as environmental regulations become more restrictive.”

As reported, CAISO President and Chief Executive Terry Winter said in late September that up to 1,700 megawatts worth of older plants in the state may be decommissioned by next summer because their owners don’t want to retrofit them with expensive pollution controls.

For transmission, CAISO assessment noted that historically in the winter months the state’s grid is free of potential congestion with the exception of the infamous north-south line in the central part of the state, Path 15. It noted, however, that there are areas where “transmission is constrained such that the full capacities of generators are not available because transmission upgrades are required to accommodate all of the new generation added to the grid.”

Nevertheless, CAISO doesn’t anticipate that these well-documented constraints will “affect (its) ability to serve load during peak hours.”

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