The cash market experienced large declines — many exceeding a dollar — as expected Friday in the Midcontinent and much of the West, but the Gulf Coast, Midwest and Northeast defied predictions of major softness in seeing a mix of mostly small gains and losses instead, largely due to expectations of significant growth in cooling load by the end of the long holiday weekend.

A majority of points fell between 2-3 cents and a little more than $1.50, with all of the triple-digit drops occurring in the Rockies/San Juan, Southern California and Arizona/Nevada markets. Otherwise quotes ranged from flat to nearly a quarter higher.

The modest screen support from Thursday’s 5.7-cent futures uptick was largely offset by the extra loss of industrial load that accompanies a holiday weekend.

Tuesday’s cash market will have prior-trading-day futures support after the June natural gas contract shook off a mild start and followed crude oil in some seesaw action to an eventual advance of 16 cents.

Henry Hub, which had closed its deficit to prompt-month futures to about 12 cents Thursday, saw the gap widen again to nearly 30 cents Friday.

The near-flat performances in much of the East occurred despite more pipes weighing in with notices of potential OFOs due to expectations of slack market-area demand.

Peak temperatures would remain limited to the mid 80s through Sunday in the eastern South, but were due to hit 90 or above to the west in Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas. A slow climb to the low 90s was expected to begin for most of the region early this week.

High temperatures Monday in the Midwest were expected to range from the still-chilly 50s along the Canadian border to the 80s in the Ohio Valley and Missouri and the 80s and low 90s in Kansas, according to The Weather Channel (TWC). But the Lower Midwest heat will be tempered somewhat by late Tuesday as an east-west cold front sags farther south to along the southern borders of Kansas, Missouri and Kentucky, it added.

The Northeast forecast will remain mild through Memorial Day, TWC said, but the Mid-Atlantic can expect 80s highs by then, TWC said.

Nearly all of the heat that had occupied most of the West through early last week had dissipated. Even the normally sizzling Phoenix was expected to peak short of 80 degrees Saturday.

In contrast to the huge Rockies drops, the Pacific Northwest locations at Sumas, Kingsgate and Stanfield rose due both to forecasts of chilly weekend weather and maintenance constraints on Northwest (see Transportation Notes).

PG&E ended Saturday a high-inventory OFO that had been in place for the previous two days, but SoCalGas extended its OFO through at least Saturday. The contrast in market reaction was sharp as the PG&E citygate and Malin each rose a little more than a dime, while Southern California border quotes into both the SoCalGas and PG&E systems plunged $1.30 or so.

The triple-digit losses in San Juan Basin were spurred at least in part by El Paso continuing to warn of a potential Strained Operating Condition due to excess linepack.

Florida Gas Transmission quit warning of a possible Overage Alert Day Friday due to milder forecasts in its Florida market area, and Florida Gas Zone 3 recorded the Gulf Coast’s biggest loss of about 20 cents in response while the Florida citygate approximately doubled that loss.

A Gulf Coast trader reported finding “plenty of market” even with the usual holiday weekend price depressant. However, Gulf Coast numbers appeared to be trending slightly lower as trading went on, she said. She said she was attending a Tennessee customer meeting near Pittsburgh last week and it was still cool enough there to require a sweater as recently as Friday.

Highs in the low 90s are starting to spread in the South, said a regional utility buyer. His company buys wholesale power in lieu of generating its own, so hotter weather has no impact on its gas purchases, but electric distribution volumes are rising noticeably, he said.

The buyer reported buying June baseload Thursday into TGT Zone 1 at both flat to index and index plus 0.25 cents. He also picked up a Trunkline-East Louisiana (1A) package at index plus 0.5 cent. Those finished his June purchases because summer term contracts are also in effect, he said.

A Midwestern marketer said his company bought some spot gas for the weekend, but some of its customers have cut back on purchase requests recently because of high gas prices. He was kind of surprised at the relative firmness of eastern prices Friday but assumed it was because cooling load would be growing in some areas by Memorial Day.

As for his own area, “we still had a heavy frost” Thursday night, but that probably marked the end of the last cold spell of the season. Most of the Midwest can expect some warmth with highs around 80 in the coming week, he said.

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