While the consensus seems to be that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be relatively mild and temperatures across much of the country will be slightly cooler this summer than in recent years, the weather’s effect on natural gas consumption is not so easy to predict, according to analysts at Barclays Capital.

Taking into account its own forecast of mild summer weather, Barclays said it expects just a 0.1 Bcf/d uptick in natural gas demand for power generation during May-September compared with the same period last year.

As measured by population-weighted cooling degree days (CDD), temperatures nationwide in May-September will average 4% warmer than the 1971-2000 average, 4% cooler than the most recent 10-year average and 1% cooler than in 2008, according to Barclays’ commodities trading desk in-house meteorologist Dan Guertin. Based on long-term warming trends across the West and an ongoing drought in Texas and the western high Plains, Barclays predicts that the cooling season will average above normal across those areas. Below-normal water temperatures in the eastern Pacific ocean will keep temperatures along the West Coast near normal. The Midwest, Northeast and Mississippi Valley can also expect near-normal temperatures this summer, according to the Barclays forecast.

The analysts said the CDD count for May-September will be approximately 1,125.

The Barclays forecast was generally in line with a recent forecast from WSI Corp., which called for cooler-than-normal temperatures likely to dominate most of the eastern U.S. over the next three months, with above-normal temperatures expected across much of the West (see Daily GPI, May 28).

Summer weather in line with the 30-year norms would result in a drop in power sector-natural gas consumption of 370 MMcf/d compared with 2008, while the 4% warming projected by Guertin would result in a 0.1 Bcf/d increase.

The 2009 hurricane season is not expected to be as active as last year, with 12-14 named storms expected to form by Nov. 30, Barclays said. A total of 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes, five of them intense, formed during the 2008 season. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an average Atlantic hurricane season has 11 named storms, which includes two major hurricanes.

Already calling for a relatively mild hurricane season this year are the Colorado State University tropical forecast team (see Daily GPI, June 3), WSI Corp. (see Daily GPI, May 27), NOAA (see Daily GPI, May 22) and AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi (see Daily GPI, May 15).

But fluctuations in summer weather do not translate into natural gas demand in a linear fashion as fuel switching, weather-adjusted changes in power generation loads and hurricane-related disruptions can all play a sizeable role, Barclays said.

Data from the previous four summers indicates that CDD does not always translate into gas demand for power generation in a linear fashion, the analysts said. In addition to possible hurricane-related demand destruction and switching between gas and competing fuels for power generation, which have come into play in recent years, power generation loads this year are expected to moderate on a weather-adjusted basis in response to the broad economic slowdown.

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