Natural Gas Futures Post Small Gain as Market Awaits More Clues on Weather Trends

  • December Nymex futures up 1.7 cents to $2.789; January up 1.4 cents to $2.873
  • “Degree days continue to do yeoman’s work, coming in 29% above normal” for the most recent EIA report week and averaging 19% above normal over the past five weeks: TPH
  • “Colder weather is showing up in a big way, which should bring much tighter weekly storage stats,” says Genscape’s Fell
  • Southern California spot prices slide on mild forecast despite new import constraints
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Milder-Trending Forecast Sinks Natural Gas Futures After Rally on Bullish Storage Stat Fizzles

  • December Nymex futures down 5.6 cents to $2.772; January down 4.8 cents to $2.859
  • “The frigid cold pool is favored to retreat into Canada Nov. 19-22, thereby being too far north to be tapped by U.S. weather systems,” NatGasWeather says
  • “We do think a milder pattern comes toward the end of the month into at least early December but are cautious on timing it”: Bespoke
  • NGPL maintenance coinciding with lower flows to Corpus Christi LNG: Genscape
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Mexico Auditor Finds Widespread Inefficiencies in CFE

Mexican state-owned electric utility Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE), long plagued by operational inefficiencies and financial losses, showed few signs of turning things around in 2018, according to a report by the government’s auditing body, the Auditoría Superior de la Federación (ASF). Read More

Weather-Driven Rally Stalls as Natural Gas Futures Pull Back

  • BREAKING: EIA reports 34 Bcf injection for week ended Nov. 1, versus estimates ~45 Bcf
  • December Nymex futures down 3.4 cents to $2.828; January off 3.3 cents to $2.907
  • “We did not register a lower I do think the bull move could still be intact,” says Powerhouse’s Wilson
  • “We do believe a milder pattern comes. It just may not be until the very end of the month or into December”: Bespoke
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More Early-Season Cold Fuels Further Natural Gas Futures Gains

  • December Nymex futures up 4.1 cents to $2.862; January up 4.2 cents to $2.940
  • “The big story will be next week’s Arctic blast that’s expected to push deep into the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast”: NatGasWeather
  • “Given our outlook for a high end-March 2020 carryout,” cold temps “could provide minor relief to a loose set of short-term seasonal balances,” says Energy Aspects
  • “If weather normalizes, pricing could see a swift reversal”: TPH
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Natural Gas Futures Keep Building Momentum as Cold Seen Sticking Around Eastern U.S.

  • December Nymex futures up 10.7 cents to $2.821; January up 9.6 cents to $2.898
  • Waha slides as NGPL maintenance leads to competition between Permian, Midcon production: Genscape
  • “Upper level ridging is reluctant so far to move away from the west coast of North America up toward Alaska, which keeps a downstream colder trough in places in the eastern half” of the U.S., says Bespoke
  • “Expect additional volatility this week with short covering, depending on how the weather forecasts play out”: Enverus
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Colder Forecast Trends Rally Natural Gas Futures as Models Differ on Mid-November Pattern

  • December Nymex futures up 8.1 cents to $2.714; January up 7.0 cents to $2.802
  • “Demand was most notably added Nov. 12-15 as the GFS favors another strong cold shot into the northern U.S.”: NatGasWeather
  • Production data indicating early-winter freeze-offs, says Genscape’s McMurrer
  • Henry Hub cash slides as discounts widespread heading into weekend
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