EIA Storage Data Disappoints, But Natural Gas Futures Rally Continues

  • April Nymex futures up 3.5 cents to $2.855; May up 2.6 cents to $2.860
  • Lack of participation in rally from winter strip “has us seeing upside for the April contract as very limited over the $2.85 level”: Bespoke
  • Guidance from 59 indie E&Ps shows them growing natural gas production 6.6% in 2019, says NGI’s Rau
  • Waha spot basis strengthens to minus 52 cents on production dip
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Natural Gas Futures Gain Ahead of Large Late-Season EIA Withdrawal

  • April Nymex futures up 3.6 cents to $2.820, May up 3.7 cents to $2.834
  • Weather data “continues to advertise cold returning over all regions east of the Plains this weekend through next week, followed by mild to warm conditions dominating most of the country March 23-27,” says NatGasWeather
  • Waha cash basis ~$1 stronger since last Friday; NGPL frees up 245 MMcf/d of northbound flows, says Genscape
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 204 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending March 8
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Afternoon Cold Trends Help Natural Gas Futures Inch Higher

  • April Nymex futures up 1.2 cents to $2.784; May up 1.2 cents to $2.797
  • Storage deficit “will keep a floor underneath prices until it is clear that we will have no issue making that up,” says Bespoke
  • LNG feedgas demand subject to downside risk this summer from weather events: Energy Aspects
  • West Texas cash prices increase for second straight day as NGPL maintenance resolved
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Natural Gas Futures Slide as Widespread Warmth Expected in Long-Range

  • April Nymex futures down 9.3 cents to $2.772; May down 8.5 cents to $2.785
  • “Where the pattern is most bearish is March 22-26 as a warm ridge expands to dominate most of the country”: NatGasWeather
  • “At this point in the storage cycle, the main question facing the market is the potential strength of demand in the Gulf of Mexico this summer,” says EBW’s Weissman
  • Waha spot prices partially rebound from steep sell-off Friday
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Production, Warmer Outlook Seen Offsetting Tight Storage as Natural Gas Futures Trade Flat

  • April down 0.1 cents to $2.865; May falls 0.2 cents to $2.870
  • “While storage levels are low, uncertainty surrounding just how much production can grow means the market is not yet particularly concerned about these stocks”: Bespoke
  • Natural gas “may have avoided a doomsday scenario,” but “we still expect 2019 peak storage to be more than 500 Bcf above last year’s mark,” says TPH
  • Associated gas output means “market needs only modest supply growth from Appalachia (and likely declines in most other gas plays) to balance”: Raymond James
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Natural Gas Futures Gain Modestly as Late Season Withdrawals Not Impressing Market

  • April Nymex futures up 2.5 cents to $2.866; May up 2.2 cents to $2.872
  • Models “continue to show strong late winter cold blasts becoming widespread across the northern, central and eastern U.S. March 16-20”: NatGasWeather
  • Cold weather Monday prompted “fourth highest single-day estimated withdrawal of this heating season,” says Genscape’s Jones
  • Constrained SoCal Citygate, Northwest Sumas post double-digit spot price increases
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Natural Gas Futures Retreat as Production Overshadows Lean Stockpiles; Cash Continues Slide

  • April Nymex futures down 4.3 cents to $2.841; May down 3.4 cents to $2.850
  • “If we had seen storage tight like this in previous years, before we had all this shale, it would have been a lot more scary,” says Powerhouse’s Levin
  • “At this point, the main issues for natural gas are how quickly and how far cash market prices will fall”: EBW’s Weissman
  • Warm-up expected by weekend as spot prices sink; Henry Hub cash down 16.5 cents to $2.935
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 149 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending March 1
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Natural Gas Futures Gain as Market Focuses on Declining Stockpiles; Spot Prices Fall

  • April Nymex futures up 2.7 cents to $2.884; May also up 2.7 cents to $2.884
  • Futures “remained well-supported, as the market shifted focus to the low stock situation,” says Bespoke
  • “On a total withdrawal basis, March 2019 should oustrip the polar vortex March 2014”: Energy Aspects
  • Market still 1-2 Bcf/d oversupplied, “but with continued strong weather demand the outlook could be a lot less dire,” says TPH
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Natural Gas Futures Trade Near Even as Cold Drives Spot Price Gains

  • April Nymex futures down 0.2 cents to $2.857; May down 0.6 cents to $2.857
  • A “mix of cold shots and milder breaks” expected March 9-15 in “relatively neutral pattern”: NatGasWeather
  • Year/year storage could reach 500 Bcf surplus by end of injection season absent lower prices, says EBW’s Weissman
  • Near-term cold sends Texas spot prices higher
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Late Winter Cold Blast Sparks Record Natural Gas Spot Price; Modest Gains for Futures

  • April Nymex futures settle at $2.859, up 4.7 cents; May adds 4.0 cents to $2.863
  • Northwest Sumas spot prices hit $200 mark as cold blast compounds volatility
  • Bulk of data “favors a warm ridge building across the southern and eastern U.S. for near-normal demand” March 10-15: NatGasWeather
  • End-of-season stocks below 1.15 Tcf a “likely path, with a continued cold pattern through March potentially causing a sub 1.1 Tcf start,” says Mobius
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