NGI The Weekly Gas Market Report / NGI All News Access

Hurricane Forecast Cut, But Season Still Active

Hurricane Forecast Cut, But Season Still Active

Renowned hurricane forecaster Dr. William Gray and his team of soothsayers at Colorado State University have scaled back their forecast made in early June for the 2000 hurricane season, but still expect it to be more active than average.

Seven, rather than eight, hurricanes are expected now, and only three --- not four --- of them are expected to be intense. In round numbers, the August forecast is for three named storms, two hurricanes, and one intense or major hurricane.

"Information obtained through July 2000 indicates that the Atlantic hurricane season in 2000 is likely to be less active than the four recent very busy years of 1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999. However, total activity is expected to exceed the long term average and is anticipated to be considerably more active than the mean for the recent period of 1970 through 1994.

"We estimate that the 2000 season will have seven hurricanes (average is 5.7), 11 named storms (average is 9.3), 55 named storm days (average is 47), 30 hurricane days (average is 24), three intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.2), six intense hurricane days (average is 4.7) and a Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) of 90 (average is 71). Collectively, net tropical cyclone activity in year 2000 is expected to be about 130% of the long-term average.

The early August forecast update is close to Gray's Dec. 8, 1999 and April 7 forecasts, but somewhat lower than his recent June 7 update. "The forecast has been lowered slightly [because] June-July global circulation conditions have not progressed quite as favorably for hurricane enhancement than as we anticipated in our early June forecast," Gray said.

Rocco Canonica

©Copyright 2000 Intelligence Press, Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news report may not be republished or redistributed in whole or in part without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.

Copyright ©2018 Natural Gas Intelligence - All Rights Reserved.
ISSN © 2577-9877 | ISSN © 1532-1266
Comments powered by Disqus