The market recorded double-digit losses across the board Monday as above-normal temperatures in many areas greatly reduced the strong heating load that had kept most points rising through Wednesday of last week. Cash numbers also had highly negative guidance from Friday’s 33.4-cent dive by March futures.

Declines were fairly consistent across geographic market areas in ranging from about a quarter to nearly 45 cents.

Pipelines were rapidly shedding OFOs or other capacity constraints associated with the cold snap in the first half of last week (see Transportation Notes).

It’s unlikely to be enough to ignite a rally in the face of anemic heating demand, but Tuesday’s cash market will have moderate prior-day futures support after the March contract rebounded by 12.9 cents Monday.

Highs in the 70s and even around 80 will be common in the South this week. There are still some freezing lows in the forecasts for large parts of the Midwest, Midcontinent and West, but that represents moderation from conditions at this time last week. The Northeast is relatively comfortable for early February with temperatures due to go no lower than the 40s in most sections Tuesday.

Alert: the gas industry can expect six more weeks of winter, according to renowned (and furry) forecaster Punxsutawney Phil. The groundhog saw his shadow upon emerging from his burrow Saturday morning in Punxsutawney, PA. Folklore says that means winter weather will continue in the U.S. for another six weeks.

The National Weather Service (NWS) may want to argue about Phil’s meteorological prognostication, however. In its six- to 10-day forecast posted Monday for the Feb. 10-14 period, NWS looks for above-normal temperatures in virtually the entire Lower 48 states. The only exception is in a narrow band along the upper West Coast from Washington state’s Puget Sound through the northern fourth of California’s coast, where normal conditions are predicted. The greatest deviations above normal should occur in the south-central U.S., NWS said.

A Mid-Atlantic source also was dubious about the groundhog’s accuracy this year. “The robins are back. Does this mean winter is over?” she speculated. “This morning there were dozens of robins busily scrounging for worms all over our back half-acre. Others in the area also have reported robin sightings. Apart from a few strays, these are the first we have seen since last fall, and it’s early for them to appear this far north. So who are you going to believe, Punxsutawny Phil or the robins?”

Noting that all of the daily market traded Monday at levels below first-of-month indexes, a Midcontinent producer said, “We’ve seen back-to-back strong daily price months” over indexes, “so you would think we’re due for a down month, in particular with the forecast above normal through mid-February now.”

Basis is tighter, so the monthly indexes are strong, “but still we’re below January cash prices,” the producer continued, so all hinges on the weather forecast. “If we start seeing a run back to $8 on the March [futures] contract, then should help cash but basis will probably move out. Bottom line: if I had to guess today, I say most daily averages [during February] will be slightly lower than monthly indexes.”

Most of Monday’s deficits to index were considerably less than a dollar, but Northeast citygates were trading lower than index by multi-dollar amounts.

A western utility buyer said his company has had several weeks of strong weather-based gas demand, which was good for its bottom line, but now its customers can look forward to very pleasant conditions this week.

The number of drilling rigs searching for natural gas in the U.S. rose by 10 to 1,432 during the week ending Feb. 1, according to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bakerhughes/). All of the increase occurred onshore, as there was no change in the Gulf of Mexico tally. The latest count is down 1% from both the month-earlier and year-ago levels, Baker Hughes said.

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