Waning La Nina conditions and a continued warm water cycle in the Atlantic Basin will cause the number of storms to be slightly above average and increase the chance that storms will hit the United States during the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, according to chief long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi and his AccuWeather.com team.

In an early hurricane season forecast released Friday Bastardi said he and his AccuWeather.com meteorologists try to understand where the spread of storm tracks will center. Storms can bunch within a spread, creating discrete areas of increased risk, as they did last year when one such bunch tracked across the northern Caribbean.

“This year early indications show that the spread will move north and east with a target closer to the Southeast U.S.,” Bastardi said.

“The warming [water cycle] is not uniform across the entire Atlantic. In some areas where hurricanes normally form — the central and eastern tropical Atlantic — ocean water temperatures are near or below normal,” he added. “This should limit the number of storms, so we do not expect a near record high number like in the 2005 season. However, considering other factors, the number of storms should be slightly higher than historical averages. The warmest waters relative to normal will be in the northern areas of the Atlantic, especially toward the North American continent. This could potentially increase the threat of major landfalls to the U.S. coast.”

Bastardi and the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center are looking at 1955, 1996 and 1999 as a few of the years showing similar weather characteristics to the current large-scale patterns. In 1955 Hurricane King made landfall on Florida’s southeast coast; in 1996 Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit North Carolina; and during the 1999 hurricane season Floyd and Dennis made landfall on the North Carolina coast.

Earlier in the week WSI Corp., which already forecast an active 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, upped the ante slightly in an update of its tropical forecast, calling for 14 named storms and eight hurricanes, including four intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) to form between June 1 and Nov. 30 (see Daily GPI, April 23). WSI forecasters said an active hurricane season will arise from the continuation of warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies into the summer and fall and the likelihood of a favorable or neutral wind shear environment on the heels of the La Nina event.

WSI’s newest forecast numbers were significantly higher than the 1950-2007 averages of 9.7 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes. Last year 15 named storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes, Dean and Felix, were created during the Atlantic hurricane season.

MDA EarthSat forecasters also said the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be busier than average but quieter than last year (see Daily GPI, April 16). MDA EarthSat forecasters said 13 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense or major hurricanes are likely to form during the coming Atlantic hurricane season.

Weather forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) recently said the U.S. Atlantic basin will likely experience a well above-average hurricane season this year and odds are nearly even that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast (see Daily GPI, April 10). The CSU team’s forecast called for 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, with eight of the storms predicted to become hurricanes, four of them intense or major hurricanes.

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have bucked the trend, saying warmer ocean waters could mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States this year (see Daily GPI, Jan. 24).

Bastardi said he will provide more details and insight on his 2008 Atlantic hurricane season predictions at the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Summit on May 12 in Houston.

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