Predicated on the El Nino weather pattern, the populous Northeast and Midwest could see a mild start to the winter, but turn “significantly colder” in January and February — with no sustained extremes, according to a preliminary winter forecast by AccuWeather. The forecast calls for a milder winter for the West Coast.

Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather’s chief long-range forecaster, says the same El Nino that has noticeably impacted the 2006 hurricane season will bring more moisture and stormy weather to the East and Gulf Coasts in the coming winter.

“Given the overall pattern and the water temperature profile we expect, the region will likely see one or two major Nor’easters.”

As outlined in Bastardi’s preliminary seasonal outlook, after a slow buildup late this year the first months of 2007 will see cold air pouring into the Northeast from Canada. It will be quite different from the last winter. “Overall, New York City and Boston are expected to average slightly below normal for the three-month winter period of December through February,” the AccuWeather forecast said.

“While temperatures in the Northeast will start out warmer than normal, a shift to colder weather during the final two months of winter will result in slightly below normal temperatures for the three-month period. This will lead to consumers needing more heating oil or natural gas than they did during last year’s exceptionally mild winter,” said Ken Reeves, AccuWeather’s director of forecast operations.

“Chicago, which is dependent on natural gas heat, experienced relatively warm winters the past few years, and we expect this pattern to change this year.” Reeves pointed to the last El Nino during the winter of 2002-2003 when the Midwest had slightly colder than average temperatures.

But “in most areas, we do not expect sustained exceptionally extreme temperatures, so energy prices will likely react more to economic and political conditions than to meteorological ones this winter,” Reeves said.

The AccuWeather forecast sees a large high-pressure system in place over the Rockies this winter, which will keep conditions relatively drier and warmer than normal. That will mean less snowpack and less water available for hydropower next year.

The AccuWeather forecast and the winter outlook of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are both based on the presence of an El Nino event. However, the two organizations disagree on the impact. According to NOAA, there will be warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada and over the western and northern United States this winter.

The full 2006-2007 AccuWeather.com winter forecast will be released in mid-October.

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