Nearly two-thirds of energy executives believe the United States can attain energy independence by 2030, eliminating the U.S. dependency for foreign oil, according to the results of the 11th annual Energy Industry Outlook Survey conducted by the KPMG Global Energy Institute.

The percentage of executives who believe that U.S. energy independence will never happen dropped by 10 points this year, from 27% in 2012 to 17% in 2013.

KPMG’s annual energy survey, which polled more than 100 senior executives in the U.S. representing global energy companies, found that 62% of respondents think the United States can attain energy independence by 2030, up from 52% in last year’s survey (see Daily GPI, May 17, 2012). Of the 62%, 23% think energy independence is possible by as soon as 2020.

“Increased domestic production, particularly from shale assets, is having a profound impact on the global energy sector, introducing new sources to the energy matrix,” said John Kunasek, national sector leader for energy and natural resources for KPMG LLP. “This ‘shale gale’ is certainly contributing to the increased optimism among energy executives on the potential for U.S. energy independence and driving large investments into the development and production from these shale assets, including greenfield investment plays.”

Late last year, a survey by Deloitte LLP found that three-quarters of oil and natural gas professionals, with on average 20 years of experience, believe the United States is headed toward natural gas independence within a decade but foreign oil will still be a necessity (see Daily GPI, Nov. 14, 2012).

Most of those polled by KPMG (73%) are bullish that the price of natural gas will remain steady between $3.01 and $4.00 for the remainder of the year. Similarly, 39% of respondents expect Brent crude oil will peak at $116-125/bbl in 2013.

“Greater assurance of supply appears to be stabilizing commodity price environments and enabling large investments. At the same time, marginal production remains shut in, which could quickly be reinstated should the price picture become even more robust for gas,” said Regina Mayor, KPMG oil and gas sector leader.

Seventy-nine percent of executives in the survey agreed that the energy industry’s emphasis in developing environmentally friendly technologies should focus on natural gas, followed by nuclear (39%), solar (33%) and clean coal technologies (32%), indicating a slight shift away from the total bullishness around natural gas seen in the 2012 survey results, to a more balanced view with solar and wind technologies making gains.

Additionally, 62% of energy executives indicated that the low natural gas environment in the United States will lead to resurgence in manufacturing and economic growth. When asked which region of the U.S. will benefit the most from this resurgence, 36% of respondents said the Northeast, followed by the Midwest (22%), Southwest (17%) and the South (16%).

“Natural gas production, particularly here in the U.S., has drastically shifted the energy paradigm and will be key to the future of the energy industry as exports grow,” Mayor said. “The high production rates of natural gas and its reputation as a low-cost alternative to other energy sources continue to contribute to the recent growth in manufacturing, and as companies begin to monetize these new assets we’ll also see significant benefits for the local and national economies.”

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