Lower 48 natural gas production fell by about 2%, or 1.39 Bcf/d, in September from August due to a combination of plant maintenance, repairs and shut-ins brought on by depressed gas prices, according to the Energy Information Administration’s 914-data released Monday.

Gross production from the Lower 48 states in September was 61.83 Bcf/d, down 2.2% from 63.22 Bcf/d in August. The drop “doesn’t mean anything from a fundamental perspective, as essentially 100% of that decline was due to shut-ins and maintenance,” said a private equity investor, according to Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities Inc.

“Louisiana reported the only increase in [onshore] production as drilling in the Haynesville Shale play continued,” the EIA said. Louisiana’s production was pegged at 4.73 Bcf/d, up 3.5% from 4.57 Bcf/d in August and from 2.96 Bcf/d in September 2008.

Total U.S. gas production, which includes the federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and Alaska, rose.0.3% to 70.46 Bcf/d in September from 70.27 Bcf/d in August, according to the agency. Gas output in the GOM in September fell 2.3% to 6.87 Bcf/d from 7.03 Bcf/d in August, while Alaskan gas production jumped to 8.63 Bcf/d from 7.05 Bcf/d in August. A year ago total domestic production stood at 64.31 Bcf/d.

Wyoming saw the single biggest decrease among gas-producing states, falling 3.2% to 6.61 Bcf/d in September from 6.83 Bcf/d in August, the EIA said. It was followed by New Mexico production, which fell 2.7% to 3.91 Bcf/d in September; Oklahoma output, which declined 2.5% to 5.01 Bcf/d in September; and Texas production, which dipped 1.5% to 20.45 Bcf/d in September.

The EIA reported that gas production from other states fell 4.1% to 14.25 Bcf/d in September from 14.86 Bcf/d in August.

“According to interstate pipeline flow data, which has a very good correlation to EIA-914s historically, October will show an increase of at least 0.5 Bcf/d from September and November looks like [it will be] up another 0.2 Bcf or so, to a number that’s actually above November 2008 production,” the private equity investor said.

“Essentially the only thing that’s saved the market from a horrendously oversupplied state and an early full storage scenario is a big increase in natural gas used for power generation, surprising strength in industrial gas demand, a collapse in Canadian imports, and the fact that LNG [liquefied natural gas] continues to be missing in action.

“All of these factors are likely to be less important going forward. LNG in particular could add 1 Bcf/d of incremental supply or more in early 2010 given additions to global capacity if new Asian and European demand doesn’t materialize. Bottom line: storage levels at the end of the withdrawal period are likely to be 500 [Bcf] to 700 Bcf above historical norms, setting us up for sub-$3/Mcf pricing near term and further weakening in long-term futures potentially to $5/Mcf or below.”

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