The previous day’s gain of 9.8 cents by prompt-month futures must have done most of the heavy lifting in propelling all but one cash point higher Wednesday because besides some moderate temperature declines forecast for Thursday in parts of the Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Northwest, there were few additions to heating load to be found.

The Florida citygate’s loss of about a nickel was the only exception to upticks ranging from C2-3 cents to about 35 cents.

November futures made a sharp reversal from its previous support of the next-day cash market by falling 19.7 cents Wednesday (see related story) in what was largely attributed to a general lack of cold weather fundamentals and expectations of a sizeable storage build report Thursday.

It was doubtful whether any traders put any bullish interpretations on it, but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded a system in the southwestern Caribbean Sea to Tropical Depression 11 and then later to Tropical Storm Ida Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds had increased to nearly 60 mph, and Ida was expected to make landfall in Nicaragua overnight, NHC said. However, the projected northwestward path would take it overland across eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, likely weakening the storm’s winds and precluding any further development unless it manages to emerge over water again north of Honduras. In that event, Ida would be approaching the southeastern Gulf of Mexico gap between the western end of Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula by early Monday afternoon, according to NHC.

Modest cooling trends that might produce small amounts of snow were in place from the Upper Midwest through northern England. However, the slightly colder conditions in the eastern Midwest would largely be offset by warmer temperatures on the region’s western side, where highs in such locations as Des Moines, IA, and Omaha, NE, would be rising into the mid 50s to lower 60s Thursday, according to the Weather Central forecasting firm. Also, the colder trends were expected to be short-lived and replaced by warm-ups starting as the weekend approaches.

Thursday’s outlook for the South is primarily status quo, with temperatures ranging from moderate to slightly chilly. And while the Pacific Northwest can expect lower readings, the region will be bracketed on both ends by rising mercury levels in Western Canada and the Rockies. Moderation will continue to dominate the rest of the West.

A marketer in the Upper Midwest said she was still buying spot gas for company customers because the area was getting colder, with snow showers possible Wednesday night and Thursday. But it will be starting to warm up into the 50s by the weekend, she said.

MichCon has waived its usual Annual Contract Quantity restriction on storage withdrawals for November, the marketer said, which indicated to her that the LDC’s facilities “are pretty full and they’d like to open up some space” for flexibility.

She said there might be a problem with late-month meter readings being divided by the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Some will be read on the Wednesday preceding Thanksgiving while the rest will be read on the following Monday, which means her company must make sure that customer charges are allocated properly.

Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans said he expects a storage injection of 30 Bcf to be reported for the week ending Oct. 30 to be followed by additions of 20 Bcf and 15 Bcf in the weeks ending Nov. 6 and Nov. 13, respectively.

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