Renewable energy stands to benefit the most from Obama administration policies, but natural gas will be lifted as well, according to energy executives who responded to a recent poll. However, energy independence is wishful thinking for at least the next two decades, and mass production of power from renewable sources won’t come any time soon either, they said.

More than three-quarters of oil and gas executives surveyed by KPMG LLP’s Global Energy Institute say energy independence is not attainable until 2030 or later. They also said mass production of alternative energy is not viable in the short term. While there is a marked shift upward in the number of executives who acknowledge that global warming is occurring, the vast majority still don’t support proposed regulations to stem CO2 emissions, the survey found.

KPMG polled 382 financial executives from oil and gas companies in April. A total of 63% of respondents believe that energy independence will not be attainable until after 2030; 16% say it can happen by 2030, while 9% deem it possible before 2020.

“Despite the increased focus on domestic energy sources, energy infrastructure and alternative energy sources, a realistic assessment of technology and investment in the industry suggests energy independence is not realistic for at least two decades,” said Bill Kimble, executive director of the Global Energy Institute. “The executives’ perceptions of energy independence mirror their views on the viability of alternatives in the near term as well.”

Executives expect alternative and renewable energy sources to receive the most focus in President Obama’s energy policy, the KPMG survey found. However, 52% said it will not be viable to mass produce any alternative energy sources by 2015, compared to 54% who said so last year and 60% who said so two years ago.

Thirty-five percent of respondents said wind energy would be the biggest beneficiary of Obama’s policy, followed by 18% for natural gas and 17% for biofuels. Conversely, 42% of executives see coal as the biggest loser while 36% say oil.

“These results clearly show the momentum wind energy has gained as a clean energy solution,” said Kimble. “But 93% of our respondents see wind generation growing to only 6% of our energy generation by 2015 and only 17% say wind energy is viable for mass production by that year.”

When asked which areas in the Obama administration’s energy policy would receive the most focus after alternative energy, executives cited greenhouse gas emissions and cap-and-trade. Although the Environmental Protection Agency recently pointed to CO2 emissions from fossil fuels as the main cause of global warming, 47% of executives still believe that global warming is a natural weather cycle, although this number is down from 62% in 2008. When asked if they would support a cap-and-trade or carbon tax to reduce CO2 emissions, KPMG found that 59% do not support either, 23% would support a carbon tax, and 18% would support a cap-and-trade system.

When asked about capital spending and key business challenges in the coming year, KPMG found that executives have a subdued view. Sixty-five percent of those surveyed expect their company to decrease capital spending, including 47% who predict a drop of greater than 10%. Only 17% expect an increase over 2008 levels. These views are in stark contrast to those from KPMG’s 2008 survey, when 70% expected an increase in capital spending and only 5% saw a decrease.

The firm found that executives still rank commodity pricing as the most significant challenge in the coming year. Other key business challenges in order of significance include the economy, access to capital and regulatory concerns. Also, 63% believe eliminating intangible drilling costs will result in companies drilling outside the U.S. and unconventional wells not being drilled, a factor that may further slow the race toward energy independence.

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