The cash market recorded higher prices at all points Thursday, largely due to October futures skyrocketing by 63.1 cents a day earlier. Hurricane-related supply losses appeared to be pinching a little harder as most Gulf Coast points achieved strong increases, and forecasts of freezing weather in the Northeast likely contributed some heating load to the market.

A good many points saw triple-digit spikes as overall gains ranged from a little more than a nickel to over $1.20. Despite the price strength, all points except those in the Rockies were still trading at deficits to first-of-month indexes.

South Texas and East Texas points, which had been unusually weak relative to the rest of the market earlier this week due to the demand destruction caused by Hurricane Ike, saw especially large gains Thursday as the cooling-off period afforded by Ike is starting to end. For the same reason, El Paso-Permian and Waha numbers racked up big increases as power generation load increased in a heating-up Lone Star State.

Frost and freeze warnings were posted for Friday morning from northern Pennsylvania to Maine, where lows in the 20s and 30s were expected, according to The Weather Channel (TWC). Temperatures were due to bottom out in the 40s in the rest of the Northeast, and even the most southerly parts of the region should not get above the 50s or 60s Friday.

Conditions are quite a bit more moderate in the Midwest, where temperatures are forecast to top out generally in the upper 70s or lower 80s in the Upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes areas, TWC said. Most of the South will be only slightly warmer than the Midwest, although at the western end Friday highs are warming to either side of 90 in Texas.

A warm spell earlier this week will be just a memory in the Pacific Northwest, but moderate temperatures will dominate from there through the Rockies and California. Denver can expect wide-ranging conditions, said Madison, WI-based Weather Central, as the Mile High City can expect a low around 48 and a high around 83 Friday. On the other hand, desert Southwest areas such as the Phoenix valley may see triple-digit heat through the weekend, TWC said, but typically this time of year marks the last such occurrence of 100-degree temperatures of the season.

Unlike Thursday, cash traders will have negative futures guidance Friday. The Energy Information Administration’s report of a 67 Bcf injection into storage during the week ending Sept. 12 was moderately higher than consensus expectations in the low 60s Bcf. The volume was 20 Bcf less than the five-year average. But the fact that the industry could manage to exceed most build estimates even with great amounts of Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production shut in was a clearly bearish signal to Nymex traders, who took October gas futures 28.9 cents lower after the contract had been much higher prior to the report (see related story).

Some companies that had closed Houston operations in advance of the storm and sent workers off-site are starting to resume at least semi-normal business. Southern Union was one, saying its Houston offices were open again Thursday and Florida Gas Transmission personnel, including Gas Control and Market Services, were available at their normal contact numbers. “Thank you for your understanding and patience through the past several days,” the pipeline company said in a bulletin board posting.

Although Florida Gas Transmission kept an Overage Alert Day in effect through at least Thursday, declining demand in Florida was reflected by Florida Gas Zone 3 and the Florida citygate having some of the day’s smallest increases.

El Paso’s two San Juan Basin pools saw jumps on either side of a dollar as the pipeline reported low linepack due to drafting of its system for a second consecutive day Thursday.

Based on reports from 80 companies Thursday, Minerals Management Service (MMS) said 5,740 MMcf/d of GOM production in federal waters remained off-line, or about 77.6% of the Gulf’s normal estimated output of 7 Bcf/d. That was a gain of 347 MMcf/d from Wednesday and reflected a slightly faster pace of recovery than Wednesday’s 144 MMcf/d, but not by much. MMS also said 1,209,078 b/d of oil was still shut in (about 93% of normal GOM production) and evacuations of platforms and mobile drilling rigs fell to 326 and 19, respectively (see related story).

Texas Eastern estimated that shut-ins on its system totaled 400,000-500,000 Dth/d Thursday.

Based on MMS reports through Wednesday, Barclays Capital analysts calculated that cumulative gas losses had risen to 115.1 Bcf. “The majority of delays, however, are taking place onshore and are mostly due to lack of personnel, persistent flooding and power cuts,” the analysts said.

Atlantic tropical activity picked up slightly, but it didn’t look like anything for gas traders to get anxious about. The National Hurricane Center said a tropical wave was interacting Thursday afternoon with an upper-level trough over the Lesser Antilles island chain between Puerto Rico and Venezuela, but the agency considered the system to have low (less than 20%) probability of development.

©Copyright 2008Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.