A day after a mostly rising cash market ignored general weakness in weather fundamentals, most points were down Wednesday in recognition of the dearth of weather-based support, even though cooling load was forecast to be growing a bit in some areas Thursday. The overall physical market also failed to get a boost in value from Tuesday’s second straight day of a 15.2-cent futures advance.

Quite a few flat to about a quarter higher numbers, primarily in the Rockies and Midcontinent, kept mixed price movement in play. Otherwise Wednesday’s losses were mostly in single digits as they ranged from 2-3 cents to about 20 cents.

It was considered rather iffy whether a further run-up of 22.8 cents in May natural gas futures Wednesday would be able to rally the cash market in light of the expected increases in cooling load being marginal and moderate temperatures remaining dominant. The gas contract was in the red early in the session but got dragged higher by another record-setting performance by May crude oil, which topped $115/bbl briefly before retreating slightly to close at $114.93 (see related story).

The South is undergoing a gradual warm-up, but with temperatures peaking in only the 70s Thursday, it has not yet rebuilt any significant air conditioning load. However, temperatures in the region will continue to rise through at least Friday, The Weather Channel (TWC) said.

The Rockies will be in a warming trend but still experiencing lows not far above freezing, while the rest of the West will range from staying chilly to cold in the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada, warming up in inland California and highs staying in the relatively pleasant 80s in the desert Southwest.

Midcontinent prices benefited from cooling weather both there and in the Midwest, but Midwest citygates were softer. Northeast temperatures “should continue their warming trend with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s Thursday,” according to TWC.

Activity in El Paso’s Bondad pool picked up again after a shutdown of nearly two days at the pipeline’s Bondad Station (see Daily GPI, April 9).

Although no Rockies Express index has been established since even the western segment has yet to be completed, the pipeline reported a sale to Tenaska Gas Storage of 15,000 Dth for Thursday flow at an even $9. That was higher than averages at other Rockies points.

A marketer in the Upper Midwest said Wednesday was a “good weather day,” which she noted was a long time in coming for her region. Temperatures were expected to push 70 degrees, she said. Her company bought “a little” spot gas for one client to make up for colder weather prior to Wednesday.

The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for the April 21-25 workweek calls for above-normal temperatures in much of the East between two lines: one encompassing South and East Texas and running northeast through eastern Oklahoma to western Wisconsin, and the other running southeast from southern New England to the midpoint of Florida’s Panhandle. NWS expects below-normal conditions in the Florida peninsula and along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, and also everywhere west of a line running southwestward from the northwest corner of Minnesota to southeastern New Mexico.

Barclays Capital Research analysts George Hopley and Michael Zenker project that a 28 Bcf storage injection will be reported for the week ending April 11.

©Copyright 2008Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.