According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the Feb. 5-9 workweek was supposed to feature above-normal temperatures in virtually all of the East and the eastern end of the Southwest (see Daily GPI, Jan. 30). But revealing the uncertainty of weather forecasts made several days in advance, the impending return of sub-freezing lows in the Midwest and New England and lows in the 30s in the lower Northeast and South resulted in double-digit price gains across the board Tuesday.

The cash market also had support from Monday’s 12.9-cent rally by March futures in posting gains ranging from a little less than 20 cents to nearly 45 cents. The degree of upward price movement was remarkably consistent across all geographic areas.

Such Midwest locations as Chicago and Detroit will see temperatures bottom out around 20 degrees Wednesday. The Northeast is due to be milder than that but can still expect stormy conditions bearing a good deal of ice and snow.

And the South won’t escape the cold snap either, even though the region was still enjoying spring-like conditions with highs in the 70s Tuesday. Its Wednesday forecast called for lows in the 30s in most of the region outside Florida. Jackson, MS, and Memphis, TN, are due to experience lows around freezing, according to Madison, WI-based Weather Central.

NWS did get it right in predicting below-normal temperatures in most of the West this week. Wednesday’s lows will sink into the teens in the Rockies, while the Pacific Northwest and inland California can expect the 30s, Weather Central said.

The Midwest and Northeast are due for another blast of “sharply colder” weather early next week, according to Daniel Guertin of Lehman Brothers. However, the new cold pattern “will be very short-lived, and mild weather will develop again by the middle of next week,” Guertin said.

Cash gas will have continuing prior-day positive guidance Wednesday from March futures, which increased another 7.3 cents Tuesday.

As of Tuesday MRT was the only pipeline imposing a transport constraint related to the return of cold weather (see Transportation Notes).

A Houston-based marketer observed that the new cold snap will have the most impact in the Midwest Wednesday, with the Northeast feeling it more on Thursday. Jokingly, he suggested that maybe gas prices were driven up by it being “Super Tuesday” of the presidential campaigns.

The NWS is expecting mostly above-normal temperatures for the Lower 48 states next week. The agency looks for above-normal readings during the Feb. 11-15 workweek roughly throughout the lower two-thirds of the East and the lower third of the West, with such conditions extending north to the Canadian border through Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas. NWS predicted below-normal temperatures in New England along with upstate New York and in all of Oregon along with the southwest half of Washington state.

Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates projects a storage draw of 198 Bcf to be reported for the week ending Feb. 1. Looking further out, Citigroup analyst Tim Evans said he expects pulls of 170 Bcf, 130 Bcf and 140 Bcf during the weeks ending Feb. 1, Feb. 8 and Feb. 15, respectively.

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