Prices were unable to sustain the upward momentum of Monday’s spikes for the most part and softened at most points Tuesday. Although temperatures were due to continue dropping Wednesday in the Northeast, moderate warming trends will be under way in the Midwest and South. Also, intermediate-term weather forecasts appeared to be less bullish Tuesday than they had been Monday.

Flat to a little more than 62 cents higher quotes at a number of points, nearly all of them in the West, were contrary to the overall market weakness. Declines ranged from a couple of cents to about 30 cents.

Cash numbers had minimal prior-day screen support from Monday’s 2.3-cent gain by December futures. Guidance for Wednesday will be negative after the contract shed 16.6 cents in its penultimate day of trading.

Sumas recorded by far the day’s largest advance after Northwest declared a Stage II Overrun Entitlement for Wednesday north of its Kemmerer (WY) Compressor Station bottleneck (see Transportation Notes) after its storage balance in that segment fell below 1.2 Bcf. Buying at Sumas was one of the pipeline’s suggestions to prevent the entitlement from being upgraded to an OFO, and shippers obviously responded to it. Such strength propelled Sumas to the highest average in the entire market, even exceeding all Northeast citygates. Northwest’s move also was bullish for Westcoast Station 2, which rose a little more than C50 cents.

El Paso’s two San Juan Basin pools also remained strong because of the pipeline declaring a Strained Operating Condition at eight points (see Transportation Notes) due to low linepack resulting from continuing underperformance at receipt points and overtakes of scheduled volumes.

Although Kern River’s linepack remained low systemwide, Rockies points were either flat to a little more than a nickel higher or as much as a quarter lower at Cheyenne Hub. The mildness of Rockies prices occurred despite freezing weather in the region, with Denver expected to see a high of 33 and a low of 19 Wednesday, according to Weather Central of Madison, WI.

Florida Gas Zone 3 recorded Louisiana’s sole gain of about a nickel after Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) warned market-area customers of a potential Overage Alert Day due to low linepack. Bentek Energy’s analysis of U.S. Natural Gas Hub Flows (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bentek/) showed that volumes in the FGT market area had dropped 268,000 MMBtu/d, or 7%, Tuesday.

Heating load was waning in the South and Midwest after frigid holiday weekends and was staying essentially flat in most parts of the West outside the Rockies. All Northeast citygates fell despite forecasts of New York City and Boston’s Tuesday highs (both 56) dropping to 48 and 44, respectively, Wednesday.

Demand was still pretty strong despite the overall softness, a Houston-based marketer said, and he expects most points to rebound Wednesday despite the screen decline. He thought the overnight change to slightly more moderate forecasts for next month had a role in Tuesday’s cash weakness. However, his company’s weather service indicates that it looks as if there will be at least two more weeks of cold in northern market areas, he said, and in areas such as Boston it should be even colder two weeks out than it is now. Also, he added, in the forecast for next week Chicago’s high doesn’t get above freezing.

In December trading the marketer reported Chicago basis in a relatively wide range of plus 19-28 cents, saying the numbers were going higher as the day went on. However, fixed prices weakened a bit along with December futures, he added. Chicago also traded at the NGI index from flat to minus 2 cents, he said.

A Midwestern marketer said area temperatures were in the 30s Tuesday, “not counting wind chill.” Her company was seeing “lots of blue” (below-normal temperatures) on its forecasting service’s six- to 10-day national weather map Monday, but not nearly as much Tuesday. She won’t know what Michigan citygate basis she will pay until Wednesday because the company and its suppliers don’t set basis until settlement day. She noted that the screen was “coming our way” (weakening) Tuesday and hoped it continues to do so Wednesday.

Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates revised his storage report estimate for the week ending Nov. 23 to a withdrawal of 10 Bcf; previously it had been 12 Bcf. Ron Denhardt of Strategic Energy & Economic Research looks for a pull of 18 Bcf. Looking further afield, Citigroup’s Tim Evans expects draws of 30 Bcf, 80 Bcf and 140 Bcf for the weeks ending Nov. 23, Nov. 30 and Dec. 7, respectively.

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