All points were on the same price page Wednesday, rising by large amounts in nearly all cases as a polar air mass that had already occupied the Midwest and Plains threatened to spread its heating load influence into parts of the South and Northeast. And although the West will still be mild to warm in the desert Southwest and inland portions of the West Coast states, it has its share of weather-related demand in the Rockies, where Denver is expected to see a second straight low in the high 20s Thursday.

The gains ranged from a little less than 15 cents to as much as a $1.08. Northern Natural-Ventura was one of the largest gainers as the pipeline’s system weighted temperature was expected to dip to 25 degrees Thursday; normal for this time of year is 52 degrees.

Normally a scheduled high-linepack OFO impacts associated prices negatively. But for the second time this week the PG&E citygate and Malin managed to record strong gains in the face of PG&E declaring an OFO for the following day (see Transportation Notes).

The frequently discussed cash deficit to futures (Henry Hub traded a little more than $2 below the November contract as recently as Friday of last week), got some more closure Wednesday. The Hub’s gain of half a dollar or so, coupled with the screen’s dip of 31.6 cents, further narrowed the gap to about 50 cents.

“It got a little sloppy there at the end in futures,” commented a Calgary-based producer. He considered NOVA Inventory Transfer prices to be fairly strong compared to the screen, estimating NIT numbers as about US65 cents behind Henry Hub. That likely is because of Alberta having experienced overnight lows around freezing or less for some time now, he said, while such weather is a relative newcomer south of the border. He was glad to see the cold spreading into the U.S., jesting, “I was getting tired of being in just about the only place in North America that was having cold weather.”

The producer expects cash quotes to fall Thursday due to Wednesday’s screen weakness. The cold weather won’t be enough to sustain any further increases with weekend warm-ups due in several areas, he reasoned, but added that any cash losses Thursday probably won’t be very big because the heating load will still be fairly substantial Friday. He noted that cash numbers were down in late deals Wednesday, influenced by the screen softness. That’s usually a good indicator of which way next-day prices will go, he said.

A utility buyer in the upper South confirmed that heating load is about to jump in his region. Wednesday’s comfortable high in the mid 70s was forecast to drop into the high 50s Thursday, with an overnight low around 40. That was reflected in his company’s scheduled throughput Thursday, which jumped by 50,000 Dth/d from Wednesday’s level in preparation for the diving temperatures, he said. However, the cold snap will be fairly fleeting, he said. The area would stay cold through Friday, then start warming again over the weekend.

“This will be a good early test of our system” and it will draw people’s attention to getting ready for the approaching winter, the buyer continued. His company is not buying any swing gas, though, preferring to withdraw storage instead to handle the brief cold spell.

The Reuters news service survey of 24 industry players found a consensus estimate of a 66 Bcf storage build to be reported for the week ending Oct. 6. The range of expectations was 56 Bcf to 80 Bcf, Reuters said.

Jim Osten, a principal with Global Insight, expects a 64 Bcf injection in Thursday’s report. He also projected that the build will drop slightly to 60 Bcf in the report for the current week.

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