North American spot gas prices lost another 20-40 cents Thursday in their lengthy price slide this week as mild weather and packed storage fields provided the market with no place to put gas supply. Prices in every region, including the Rockies, fell substantially as the Nymex gas and crude oil futures screens took an early beating, leaving cash traders no reason to push spot prices higher.

“All locations out West fell 25 cents or more,” said a western marketer. “Western prices already are down 10-20 cents more for the weekend. But next week, it is supposed to be a little colder in some markets, so we could see a little jump on Monday and Tuesday, maybe even through the holiday weekend. The cooler weather should include the northern Rockies and parts of the Midwest and Northeast. I think we’ll see stored gas start to come out of the ground and Texas gas start to head East. When that happens, it helps the whole western market.”

Others, however, were not so optimistic. “This weekend will be even worse. I don’t want to think about what’s going to happen over the holiday weekend. We have maximum storage levels and no winter weather so far. This is what we have been fearing for some time. I imagine people were so looking forward to the winter hoping for a repeat of last year. Well, we got half way though November before people started giving up on that idea. But December is coming, and December is always cold…right?”

The National Weather Service released an updated forecast for December yesterday but it provides very little information with uncertain outlooks for most of the nation. The only concrete indications are that there should be above normal temperatures in the Southwest and southern Florida, which are normally warm in December anyway. NWS’ three-month seasonal forecast (December through February), however, shows below normal temperatures across the far northern states from Montana across through New England. The southern three-quarters of the nation is expected to see above normal temperatures.

The latest six- to 10-day forecast calls for normal temperatures across most of the United States except the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic where below normal temperatures are expected. The eight- to 14-day forecast shows an even larger area of below normal temperatures across the Southeast and Midcontinent regions with normal temperatures across the rest of the nation. Other forecasters expect very little cool weather in the short-term except over the northern Rockies, the Northern Plains states and New England. Slightly cooler weather is expected in the Northeast over the weekend, but the Midwest should remain relatively mild.

Mild temperatures were the main reason once again that prices fell yesterday. The Rockies finally joined the downward trend after two days of surprising increases. Some Rockies points dropped more than 40 cents below $1.50 and were still tumbling Thursday evening for weekend flows. San Juan prices dropped 30 cents to a price range of $1.58-78 compared to the high $1.90s on Wednesday. Permian prices lost at least 25 cents, as did SoCal Border, which had a range of about $1.86-97. Waha traded between $1.73 and $1.87, down 30 cents. Gulf prices plummeted Thursday, and traders already were seeing weekend declines of 10 more cents before Friday even started.

Despite the sharp early decline in December futures and the substantial spreads in the Midwest and Northeast, spreads widened further by a nickel to a dime. “I wish mother nature would show up and help this industry out,” said one Northeast LDC buyer. “We were selling today, and sold some New York at 2.34-2.49. Chicago prices were off 25-30 cents compared to Wednesday’s levels.”

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