With a U.S. recession appearing more likely in 2023 and uncertainty swirling around natural gas flows from Russia to Europe, natural gas markets may be in for a bumpy ride heading into the shoulder and winter seasons.

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“Our baseline is that you will see a recession in 2023,” Macquarie Group Ltd.’s David Doyle, head of economics, told NGI. 

Doyle is scheduled to deliver the keynote address on day two of LDC Gas Forums’ Midcontinent Forum Sept. 12-14 in Chicago.

He cited the presence of numerous leading indicators that have historically preceded economic contraction, including rapid wage growth and a spike in the cost of energy as a percentage of household income.

Notably, Doyle said, there has been “a change in tone” of late from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman...