Brent crude oil prices are on track to average $104/bbl in 2022, a sharp increase from an average price of $71 for the global benchmark in 2021, updated modeling from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows.

The horizon remains clouded by uncertainty surrounding economic activity and the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, researchers said in EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published Tuesday.

“The possibility of economic activity being less robust than assumed in our forecast could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption,” researchers said.

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Questions remain as to the impacts of sanctions on Russia’s...