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Little Overall Weather Change; November Seen Flat

November natural gas is set to open unchanged Monday morning at $2.91 as near-term weather is little changed and the technical landscape is still holding together. Overnight oil markets were mixed.

Forecasters are calling for increased heating and cooling load. WSI Corp. in its Monday morning six- to 10-day outlook said, "[Monday's] six-10 day forecast is generally cooler than Friday's forecast over the eastern half of the nation, but warmer over the western half when compared to Friday's forecast. CONUS PWCDDs are up 1.1 to 13.1. GWHDDs are up 3.2 to 28.7 for the period. Forecast confidence is still on the lower end of the scale again today due to inherent uncertainty and model spread with Matthew and its influence on the whole pattern.

"The forecast is weighted closer to the ECMWF [European] model camp, so the GFS [Global Forecast System] guidance offers a much cooler risk across the eastern half of the nation."

With the recent futures declines, the technical framework is starting to unravel. "Starting to see a deterioration in the technical picture," said Brian LaRose, market technician at United ICAP, in a Monday morning report. "However, bears have not forced natgas beneath levels we consider to be key support. So best we can label the price action is constructive.

"To confirm natgas is headed south from here a decisive close below $2.882-2.830 will be required. As long as the bulls can prevent that from happening, a re-establishment of the up trend should not be dismissed."

In its 8 a.m. EDT Monday report, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Hurricane Matthew was 220 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and was heading to the north at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds were at 120 mph and NHC projected a course to the Bahamas and Carolinas.

In overnight Globex trading November crude oil gained 42 cents to $48.66/bbl and November RBOB gasoline fell fractionally to $1.4581/gal.

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