Although current climate patterns portend a rather mild winter overall this year, historical comparisons indicate that December could be quite cold, according to WeatherBELL Analytics LLC meteorologist Joe Bastardi.

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Speaking at the LDC Gas Forums Mid-Continent show in Chicago last week, Bastardi said October weather often is a key indicator of how cold it may be during the November-March winter season. The biggest factor meteorologists look at is water temperature, and current temperatures are quite warm, he noted.

While warmer waters in the U.S. Northeast mean temperatures stay warmer longer, they also serve as a breeding ground for tropical activity, according to Bastardi. It’s been eerily quiet thus far in the Atlantic hurricane season. More than halfway through the 2022...