Ever since coming to power at the end of 2018, Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has promised to kill the energy reform of his predecessor Enrique Peña Nieto. With his recent proposal to drastically overhaul the energy sector through a constitutional amendment, is this on the cusp of happening?

CFE

Analysts at political risk group Eurasia give the president’s proposed reform — which would eliminate autonomous regulators and give the state carte blanche in the power sector — a 30% chance of passing both houses of Congress. 

It’s “unlikely that the bill will be approved in its current form” but the president will make “significant efforts” to obtain support from the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) party, they said.

For the reform proposal to...