Coming off a record-setting summer driven by new highs in power generation demand, domestic natural gas prices will strengthen through the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, according to updated modeling from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA modeled an average Henry Hub spot price of $2.55/MMBtu for the third quarter, with prices set to rise to $2.95 in the fourth quarter. Both figures were roughly in line with month-earlier projections. Looking ahead to early next year, EIA called for an average spot price for the benchmark of $3.32 in 1Q2024. 

Recent data from NGI’s Forward Look suggests the market is pricing in a bit of upside versus EIA’s forecast. According to Forward Look, Henry Hub fixed prices were...