High global oil inventory levels and surplus production capacity will keep Brent crude prices near $40/bbl through the end of the year, with prices expected to climb to an average $47/bbl in 2021, according to a recent forecast from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

According to the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published Tuesday, U.S. crude production averaged 10.6 million b/d in August, the latest month for which data is available, a 0.4 million b/d month/month decrease.

“Production fell in August mainly because hurricanes disrupted production from the Gulf of Mexico,” the agency said. “EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico averaged 1.2 million b/d in August, down 0.5 million b/d from July.”

U.S. crude...