NGI Mexico GPI

Early-winter volatility continued in the natural gas futures market Friday as colder-trending weather data helped launch a swift midday rally. After trading as low as $2.575/MMBtu, the December Nymex contract went on to settle near the session’s high at $2.714, up 8.1 cents on the day. January picked up 7.0 cents to settle at $2.802.

TC Energy Corp. now expects the phased entrance into service of the 886 MMcf/d Tula-Villa de Reyes pipeline in Mexico to occur in early 2020, CEO Russell Girling said Friday during a third-quarter earnings call.

After a solid run that lifted December natural gas prices nearly a quarter over the last three days, a bearish government storage stat and weak cash market stopped the rally dead in its tracks. The December Nymex gas futures contract went on to settle Thursday at $2.633, down 5.8 cents. January fell 4.9 cents to $2.732.

Editor’s Note: NGI’s Mexico Gas Price Index, a leader tracking Mexico natural gas market reform, is offering the following column as part of a regular series on understanding this process, written by Eduardo Prud’homme.

Net U.S. natural gas exports through the first six months of 2019 more than doubled year-ago levels, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), showing the rapid transformation underway for a country that only became a net exporter in 2017.

A sustained drop in natural gas production and relatively stable weather outlooks were enough to propel Nymex futures higher on Wednesday despite expectations for upcoming government storage data to reflect a much larger-than-normal injection.

The sharp swings higher just keep coming for natural gas futures. With another solid shift to the colder side in the latest weather models, the November Nymex gas futures contract expired Tuesday some 15.1 cents higher at $2.597. December, which takes the prompt-month position on Wednesday, rose a more moderate 8.4 cents to $2.639.

If Mexico’s goal is to increase crude and natural gas production, unconventional exploration and development will be required to play a key part, according to a presentation last week by the National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH).

Natural gas futures surged Monday as all weather models trended colder for the coming weekend and next week. Even with production hitting another new high, a strong cash market helped send the November Nymex contract up 14.6 cents to $2.446/MMBtu. December climbed 9.6 cents to $2.555.