NGI Data

Weekend and Monday deliveries retreated in Friday’s trading as weekend temperature forecasts struggled to make it to seasonal norm. By Monday temperatures were expected to be more than 10 degrees below normal throughout the Midwest and Great Lakes.

The good news for gas buyers is that weekly prices worked another 18 cents lower to $3.72 according to the NGI Weekly Spot Gas National Average for the week ended July 25. The bad news is that for unhedged physical market longs the pace of weekly declines is accelerating. For the week ended July 18 the market fell 11 cents to a national average of $3.90.

Physical gas for Friday delivery was a mixed market on Thursday with a few modestly higher quotes in the Gulf Coast mostly outweighed by broader declines in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes and Midcontinent.

Natural gas futures rose following the release of government storage figures that were on the low side of what the market was expecting.

Forward basis curves are continuing into August the trend begun in July of falling price expectations, with negative basis for Northeast points deepening as markets continue to price in cooler expectations of August weather and a warmer-than-average autumn.

Spot gas for Thursday delivery worked lower in Wednesday’s trading, with stout double-digit losses up and down the East Coast. New England and the Mid-Atlantic were especially hard hit, but Marcellus points also fell.

Physical natural gas prices for Wednesday delivery were mostly unchanged in Tuesday’s trading. A few New England points saw some double-digit increases, but market areas in the Midwest and Great Lakes saw prices flat to a few pennies lower despite weather forecasts calling for significant near-term cooling.

Spot gas for Tuesday delivery was mixed in Monday’s trading with Northeast and East points posting hefty gains, driven by expected heat and higher power requirements, while at the same time producing regions fell into the loss column.

Physical natural gas for weekend and Monday delivery continued to trudge lower in Friday’s trading, partly motivated by a need to play catch-up to Thursday’s screen declines, but weather forecasts continued to call for seasonal temperatures across a broad swath of the country.