Markets

The below-normal temperatures and deep freeze across the country led two analysts on Monday to revise upward their forecasts for U.S. natural gas prices in the first quarter.

Arctic temperatures sweeping much of the country in a Polar Vortex strained pipeline throughputs and pushed natural gas spot prices to record highs in the Northeast. Transco Zone 6 non-NY next-day prices shot higher by $59.76 to average $70.66/MMBtu, while Transco Zone 5 increased by $61.27 to average $72.43/MMBtu, according to NGI’s Daily Gas Price Index.

Prices for physical natural gas traded Monday for Tuesday delivery spiked in response to a Polar Vortex and record cold temperatures sweeping across the country. The day recorded the three highest prices ever published in NGI’s Daily Gas Price Index (see chart). Biggest gainers on the day proved to be points in and around New York City.

Physical natural gas trading for weekend and Monday delivery seemed to resemble two Sumo wrestlers vying for supremacy with clashing weather-driven market forces from the Midwest grappling with offsetting market factors in the East.

Spot natural gas prices for delivery Friday soared in Thursday’s trading as cold and in some cases blizzard conditions were forecast for major energy markets in New England and along the East Coast as winter storm Hercules moved in.

Northeastern physical gas values for Wednesday and Thursday delivery mostly ticked higher in Tuesday’s trading as traders had to lock up volumes ahead of mind-numbing cold and snow expected to pound eastern energy markets. Mid-Atlantic points posted stout gains, but pipes serving the Boston area suffered declines. Futures traders took a big hit with February dropping 19.7 cents to $4.230 and March falling 18.9 cents to $4.193. February crude oil shed 87 cents to $98.42/bbl.

Physical natural gas for delivery Tuesday vaulted higher Monday, fueled in large part by a number of capacity constrained points in New England. At the close of futures trading February had advanced 5.9 cents to $4.427 and March was higher by 4.6 cents to $4.382. February crude oil fell $1.03 to $99.29/bbl.

Deliveries of weekend and Monday gas were unchanged on average in Friday’s trading, with eastern and Northeast weakness for the most part offset by gains in the Midwest. At the close, January had fallen 2.6 cents to $4.407 and February was down 10.8 cents tgo $4.368. February crude oil added 77 cents, to $100.32/bbl, the first time oil has traded above $100 in two months.

Physical gas for Friday delivery slipped a few cents Thursday as outsized gains at New England points could not offset broader losses in the Midwest, Gulf Coast and California.