Over the weekend, the celebrated groundhog Punxsutawney Phil foreshadowed an early spring, but natural gas traders have spent the past month wondering when winter will start, much less when it will end.
Articles from Bidweek
With January projected to be one of the Top-10 warmest on record, the double-digit decreases inbidweekprices reflect just how much things can change in a year.NGI’sJanuaryBidweekNational Avg.dropped 26.0 cents to $2.565.
Mother Nature’s timing in unleashing frigid Arctic air on the United States resulted in some of the most extreme volatility the natural gas market has seen during bidweek in quite some time. The vast majority of markets posted hefty gains as frosty conditions and subzero temperatures spread across the country’s midsection, boosting NGI’s November Bidweek National Avg. to $2.375, up 37.0 cents month/month.
Leaving behind the summer-like temperatures that persisted for much of September, October natural gas bidweek traders contemplated the price impacts of a potentially mild start to the heating season and a more comfortable storage situation compared to a year ago.
Although the natural gas market is approaching the time of year when weather typically takes a back seat to other market drivers, expectations for more heat later this month drove up September bidweek prices in much of the country.
With summer heat failing to counterbalance continued supply growth, a bearish finish for the front month futures contract eroded natural gas prices across much of the Lower 48 during August bidweek; NGI’s August Bidweek National Avg. eased 4.0 cents to $1.940/MMBtu.
After natural gas futures prices in April plunged to their lowest level since 2016, and with a bearish weather outlook that is seen tightening storage deficits over the coming weeks, May bidweek prices fell in dramatic fashion.
Mild Temps, Supply Growth Seen Shrinking Storage Deficits as April NatGas Bidweek Traders Lock In Discounts
With a repeat of the chilly April 2018 temperatures that extended the natural gas storage withdrawal season last year seemingly not in the cards, and with production growth threatening to quickly erase inventory deficits, April bidweek traders locked in natural gas discounts throughout the Lower 48.
Forecasts for record-level cold to start the month gave March natural gas bidweek traders something to ponder even as the inevitable warm-up — set against a generally bearish supply backdrop — weighed on market sentiment with the shoulder season fast approaching.
After a decidedly mild December and a tepid start to 2019, natural gas price bulls were hoping the return of polar vortex cold in the back half of January would help drive strong gains during February bidweek.