Winter

After stumbling last heating season Canadian natural-gas exports show signs of getting back on their feet, but when they will resume growing — or even whether they can — remains an open question. For the first time since the onset of energy deregulation and free trade, exports fell in the opening half of the current natural-gas contract year ending Oct. 31, according to records of the National Energy Board.

Despite the record natural gas well completions experienced last winter, Canada’s natural gas production — minus Ladyfern — appears to be on the decline, according to research by Lehman Brothers’ Oil & Gas unit. Total Canadian gas production year-to-date through April increased 2% above 2001. However, without the prolific Ladyfern find, year-to-date volumes would have been down about 2% from the same period and western Canadian production would be down 3%.

Cuts dealt to estimates of natural gas reserves offshore Nova Scotia this winter were only temporary setbacks to growth that still has potential to surprise even optimists, the National Energy Board has been assured. The region harbours up to 89 Tcf of gas or about twice as much as Alberta’s remaining established reserves, Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline said.

Cuts dealt to estimates of natural gas reserves offshore Nova Scotia this winter were only temporary setbacks to growth that still has potential to surprise even optimists, the National Energy Board has been assured. The region harbours up to 89 Tcf of gas or about twice as much as Alberta’s remaining established reserves, Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline said.

Last week’s reminder that winter actually can be quite cold at times (a fact that some traders might have forgotten during yet another mild heating season) was starting to fade as scheduled Friday in parts of the East, but severe weather was either tightening or reasserting its grip from the Rockies through the Midcontinent/Midwest. The result was mildly higher weekend pricing in the still-frigid regions, while flatness prevailed in most of the rest of the market. Northeast and Florida citygates sustained the only significant losses as they continued retreating from midweek spikes.

Although this week’s winter siege likely was reaching its maximum area of penetration Wednesday, for the most part it had lost much of its price-boosting power. Except for big advances by Florida citygates and some citygates in the Northeast, the rest of the cash market had settled down for a generally flat performance, with scattered points showing 1 to 5 cent increases.

What may be bullish traders’ last weather hope in an otherwise disappointingly mild winter was developing Monday, but the price reaction was somewhat subdued. Most eastern points ranged from flat to slightly more than a nickel higher, while western gains tended to be larger at about a nickel to nearly 15 cents. The stronger performance in the West was largely attributed to recovery from weekend softening, the absence of high-linepack OFOs in California and demand in the Midwest for more Rockies supplies.

Alaska Republican Sen. Frank Murkowski vowed to amend the Senate energy bill before the end of winter to better ensure that his fellow Alaskans get a fair shake in any gas pipeline deal that comes out of the legislation. Murkowski said he wanted to include a ban to prevent producers from pursuing an “over-the-top” pipeline route, which would bypass most of the state by crossing the Beaufort Sea and then heading down the Mackenzie River in the Northwest Territories to connect with the pipeline grid in Alberta.

Traders had realized that a belated stretch of severe winter weather throughout much of North America was the only thing keeping spot prices firm since the end of January, so it was purely a matter of “when” a market retrenchment would begin. The “when” turned out to be Wednesday, as across the board declines were topped by plunges ranging up to slightly more than 70 cents (Algonquin citygate) in the previously high-flying Northeast.