Wednesday

Cash prices were dropping for the most part Wednesday as manyhad expected, and there’s no reason not to expect more softeningthrough the rest of the week, several sources said. They had plentyof evidence to back up their prediction: forecasts of moderatingheat in the South by the weekend, a falling futures screen and abearish AGA storage report exceeding 100 Bcf in injections.

The June Nymex futures contract kicked up 2.0 cents to $2.169 onWednesday, amid a relatively light trading session and an extremelylimited three-cent trading range. Estimated volume came in at amere 43,390 contracts. “Trading was extremely orderly today,” abroker reported. “There was no real panic. Most of the volume wasEFPs and spreads today, with very little outright trading.” Hethinks part of the reason why speculative activity was limited isthat a satellite which transmits Nymex data to several vendors wasapparently down yesterday, and that prevented traders from gettingnecessary real-time price information.

The cash market made more small gains Wednesday, but downturnsin late trading at many points led sources to believe this week’sprice rally has ended, at least for the time being. Prices ran up3-4 cents at the outset but then came off hard at the tail end inresponse to the screen, said a Gulf Coast trader. As long asfutures stayed up, though, cash stayed right there with them, headded.

The AGA storage report proved to be an anchor on natural gasfutures prices yet again on Wednesday, as the spot June contractfell 5.2 cents to settle at $2.204. The latest report came in at100 Bcf worth of injections, which increases the surplus versuslast year by 30 Bcf to 403 Bcf. Total estimated volume came in at59,231.

Cash prices were down again Wednesday in response to typicalshoulder month lack of cooling demand and downward pressure fromfalling Nymex futures prices. The futures drop of about 8 cents ledmost cash points down by amounts in the same neighborhood orgreater. However, there were mild rebounds occurring late, said atrader in the Gulf Coast and Southwest markets.

The June Nymex contract spiraled 8.0 cents lower to $2.130 onWednesday, thanks to what an analyst said was traders unloadinglong positions ahead of the latest AGA storage report. That report,which came in at 78 Bcf, was slightly above the expected range of50-75 Bcf, and nearly double the 46 Bcf report from last year.

The June Nymex contract made its debut as the spot month byslipping 1.3 cents to settle $2.298 on Wednesday. Volume wasmoderate, with an estimated 40,133 contracts changing hands.

The May Nymex contract surged 13.3 cents to $2.668 Wednesday,despite cash market prices which remained relatively unchanged. Thereason why? “Who really knows, but what I do know enough funds wereconvinced this market was a play to trigger buy stops above $2.61.Estimated volume of more than 80,000 contracts tells you that,” asource told GPI.

The May Nymex contract lost 2.1 cents to $2.501 Wednesday amidone of the most active non-expiration days in exchange history. Anestimated 93,649 contracts changed hands, many of which were tradedafter May fell back from its new all-time high trade of $2.56. “Mayhad pretty good resistance at $2.58, but I think funds were anxiousto take profits,” an analyst told GPI.