weather

Fueled by moderating weather forecasts and following Monday’s21-cent decline, natural gas futures tumbled lower in a classicexpiration-day long liquidation Tuesday, as traders rolled theirprompt month positions into back months. After a back-breakingsell-off in the last five minutes of trading Monday, the Decembercontract gapped lower at the open and tumbled 35.2 cents to itsfinal resting place at $6.016 yesterday.

It doesn’t matter whether forecasters predictions of an earlycold winter materialize or not. Under any short-termweather/storage scenario, Salomon Smith Barney (SSB) continues tobe very bullish on the outlook for natural gas prices.

It doesn’t matter whether forecasters’ predictions of an earlycold winter materialize or not. Under any short-termweather/storage scenario, Salomon Smith Barney (SSB) continues tobe very bullish on the outlook for natural gas prices.

Even with much of its cold weather support disappearing, thecash market still found cause for moderate bullishness Wednesday.But that’s expected to pale in comparison to the fireworks thatsources were predicting for today after the screen exploded withgains of more than 35 cents in both the November and Decembercontracts following AGA’s below-expectations storage report.

What do you get when you pair a fizzling Gulf Coast tropicalstorm with mild temperatures across much of the U.S.? If youanswered “lower natural gas prices,” then you were right yesterday.

Those of a bullish bent found encouragement all around Tuesday:July natural gas futures challenged unprecedented heights whilecrude oil futures edged back above $32/bbl; heat waves challengedelectric grid operators in both the East and West; and priorestimates of this afternoon’s storage report indicated a consensusthat the year-on-year deficit will just keep growing and adding tothe refill challenge.

With a weaker screen during the morning and not a lot of solidweather load emerging from the weekend, most of the East was flatto down a few cents Monday. Western points continued a now-familiarpattern bracketing weekends: having suffered the biggest drops onFriday, they saw the biggest rebounds on Monday.

Fundamentals began playing a larger role in a rebounding weekendmarket Friday as several sources expressed relief that thepreviously frenetic screen was beginning to calm down.

Buoyed by cool weather in the Northeast, bullish techincals andsupportive cash market prices, natural gas futures rumbled higheryesterday as traders bid up prices in an opening bell buyingfrenzy. After gapping higher at the open, the May contract spikedto a new life-of-contract high during the first hour of trading.From that point the buying waned and prices were left to chopsideways for the remainder of the session. May finished up 8 centsat $3.158.