Volatility

Carving out a wide 15-cent trading range on the daily charts, prompt month natural gas futures continued its volatile temperament yesterday as traders tested both the upside and the downside. As it turns out, neither thrust attracted much in the way of additional buying or selling, leaving the market to chop sideways to slightly higher Tuesday. July finished at $3.981, up 4.2 cents on the day, but nearly 7 cents below its high trade.

Increased gas and electricity price/supply volatility is musicto the ears of natural gas storage developers, and no one iswhistling louder these days than two firms sinking their investmentdollars into depleted gas fields in California: Western Canada’sAlberta Energy Company, developer of the state’s first merchantunderground storage project, Wild Goose Storage, in a depleted gasreservoir 50 miles north of Sacramento; and Western Hub Properties,the Texas-based developer that will begin construction of thefirst of two new storage projects in the state by the end of March.

Increased gas and electricity price/supply volatility is musicto the ears of natural gas storage developers, and no one iswhistling louder these days than two firms sinking their investmentdollars into depleted gas fields in California: Western Canada’sAlberta Energy Co., developer of the state’s first merchantunderground storage project, Wild Goose Storage, in a depleted gasreservoir 50 miles north of Sacramento; and Western Hub Properties,the Texas-based developer that will begin construction of thefirst of two new storage projects in the state by the end of March.

The volatility in the California energy market finally spilledover into the stock market last week. The uncertainty over thefinancial health of California’s two largest utilities, SouthernCalifornia Edison and Pacific Gas and Electric, triggered panic onWall Street over the potential impact on many other energycompanies and even some utility lenders.

In almost a carbon copy of Monday’s session, natural gas priceserupted higherTuesday morning only to spend much of the remainderof the session checking lower as traders took profits amidintra-day technical weakness and storage uncertainty. Ending athree-day, $1.25 dollar price rally, the January contract slipped4.9 cents to close at $7.384. Meanwhile, the 12-month strip tumbledconvincingly, down 13.6 cents to $5.555.

Two wrongs do not make a right, but they do make for somevolatility in the natural gas pit. Since December’s precipitousclimb to $6.32 last week, the prompt month has vacillated wildly— first lower and then higher, prompting traders to suggest thosemoves were a little bit overdone. However, last Wednesday’s movehigher received some validation Friday when prices bounced offsupport and erupted higher to once again close in the $6-plus pricestratosphere. After trading within a wide, half-dollar tradingrange, the December contract finished the week strongly, up 30.2cents at $6.10.

While condemning the wholesale gas and power volatility thissummer and profit-hungry generator/marketers, San Diego-basedSempra Energy CEO Steve Baum painted a bright picture last Thursdayfor his company and utility consumers, noting that San Diego Gasand Electric Co. customers are now paying on average less for theirelectricity than they did a year ago.

While condemning the wholesale gas and power volatility thissummer and profit-hungry generator/marketers, San Diego-basedSempra Energy CEO Steve Baum painted a bright picture last Thursdayfor his company and utility consumers, noting that San Diego Gasand Electric customers are now paying on average less for theirelectricity than they did a year ago.

What a difference a week can make when you are dealing with thevolatility of natural gas futures. As recently as last Friday whenprices carved out a $4.98 low, it appeared that bulls had turned intheir horns and donned their bear coats for the winter. And whynot? Storage injections were picking up, demand was light andtechnicals had turned negative. $4.50 here we come, right?