Unlikely

Constraints on supplies of natural gas, crude oil and coal are unlikely to occur worldwide before 2025, but in the next 20 years, the energy industry will be challenged to design sustainable technology that can replace depleted fossil fuels, the chairman of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group told a Houston audience.

Constraints on supplies of natural gas, crude oil and coal are unlikely to occur worldwide before 2025, but in the next 20 years, the energy industry will be challenged to design sustainable technology that can replace depleted fossil fuels, the chairman of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group told a Houston audience.

Except for a few flat to slightly lower Northeast citygates and western points, most of the cash market continued to build on Wednesday’s advance with further large gains Thursday. And sources said that with the dazzling 38-cent spike in futures, it’s a pretty safe bet to expect more strength in cash numbers for the weekend.

With several lawmakers from both sides of Capitol Hill calling for FERC to slow down its implementation of a proposed standard market design (SMD) for U.S. wholesale electricity markets, a Capitol Hill aide on Friday cast doubt on whether moves to rein in the federal agency’s SMD proposal will occur as part of the ongoing Congressional efforts to craft a comprehensive energy bill.

Hurricane forecaster Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University cut his prior tropical storm forecast for the year by one but said the hurricane season this summer should still be more active than normal with 12 named storms (average is 9.6), seven hurricanes (average is 5.9), three intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and overall net tropical cyclone activity of 125% of the average year for the period between 1950-2000.

Sens. Frank Murkowski (R-AK) and Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) agreed Friday to work cooperatively on language in the Senate omnibus energy bill to reduce the risks tied to the construction of an Alaska natural gas pipeline from the North Slope to the Lower 48 states.

The “steep” natural gas declines in the third quarter of 2001 are “unlikely” to be part of a trend, and so far have not been repeated in fourth quarter reports, according to Lehman Brothers latest exploration and production update. The analyst found that “early returns” from 45 of the largest producers “lead us to estimate that wellhead gas production fell 0.1-0.5%” compared to the third quarter. The analyst also expects a production decline this year to fall between 1.5-2.5%, and import growth and storage to “meet demand growth” in 2002.

The “steep” natural gas declines in the third quarter of 2001 are “unlikely” to be part of a trend, and so far have not been repeated in fourth quarter reports, according to Lehman Brothers latest exploration and production update. The analyst found that “early returns” from 45 of the largest producers “lead us to estimate that wellhead gas production fell 0.1-0.5%” compared to the third quarter. The analyst also expects a production decline this year to fall between 1.5-2.5%, and import growth and storage to “meet demand growth” in 2002.

Based on current reservoir levels, it is unlikely that hydroelectric output in the Pacific Northwest will return to normal levels in the coming year, and demand on gas-fired units will increase, a new report by Arlington, VA-based Energy and Environmental Analysis Inc. (EEA) concludes. As a result, EEA has adjusted its forecast for hydroelectric generation downward for 2002 and 2003, with a return to normal output in 2004.