Trends

What was forecast to be a week of above-normal temperatures throughout most of the U.S. began Monday with warming trends in some areas as advertised, but not enough heat to keep prices from continuing to fall at most points. Friday’s 21.8-cent slide by July futures also had bearish implications for Monday’s cash market.

Despite cooling trends in New England and western sections of the Midwest, the cash market continued to find enough power generation load to keep air conditioners humming that rising prices prevailed again at most points Wednesday. The recent trend of mixed price changes continued at least another day as a few Midcontinent and Rockies points ranged from flat to modestly lower.

With forecasts of warming trends slow in being realized, the market found enough residual heating load to turn in a mixed performance Wednesday in which there were more gains than losses. Most points were flat or close to it, and those more than a dime higher or lower were few.

Despite modest prior-day support from futures, the cash market was losing enough heating load to moderating weather trends in several areas to cause lower prices at most points Friday. The drop of industrial load that accompanies weekend flows also contributed to the overall softness.

Feeding on recent futures strength and slight cooling trends in northern market areas, prices ranged from flat to about 40 cents higher at a large majority of points Wednesday. Texas Eastern-Kosciusko in the Gulf Coast and Transco Zone 6-New York City were the only contrarian points to see modest losses of up to a nickel.

Prices fell at most points Friday — by dollar-plus amounts at several locations in the Northeast and Gulf Coast — as moderating weather trends were expected to begin over the weekend in several areas and be firmly entrenched by the start of this week. The extra loss of industrial load associated with a long holiday weekend was an additional negative influence for the cash market.

With modest warming trends approaching Thursday in the Northeast and much of the Midwest, prices fell at nearly all points Wednesday. In most cases the drops were considerably smaller than prior-day spikes in ranging from a little less than a nickel to about half a dollar. The Northeast also was giving up less price ground than it had gained on Tuesday, but regional citygates measured Wednesday’s losses in triple digits.

Prices fell at virtually all points Thursday as buyers in key northern market areas looked for warming trends going into the weekend to lighten their loads. Wednesday’s 12.4-cent rise by February futures had no effect on stemming the broad-based declines in cash quotes.

The cash market rang up double-digit losses across the board Tuesday. Moderating weather trends in the South and West, fairly benign early-December conditions in the Northeast, and a 61.6-cent futures plunge the day before kept prices in free-fall.